Fewer people from the European Union are moving to work in the UK, with official figures showing that net migration from the region is now at its lowest level since 2012.

Experts believe that while the overall number of EU citizens moving to the UK continues to add to the population, this number is likely to keep falling in the run up to the day the country leaves the EU at the end of March 2019.



An analysis of the figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that the fall in the number of EU citizens coming to the UK for work has recently been driven by a decrease in EU15 citizens coming with a definite job.

The number of EU citizens coming with a definite job was stable in the year to June 2017 while the number looking for work was falling. Since then the pattern has changed and in the latest year, to June 2018, the number with a definite job has decreased, down 32,000, particularly citizens of EU15 countries, down 26,000 to 34,000.

The overall number of EU citizens coming to the UK for a definite job is now back to a level similar to those seen in 2013 and 2014, at 77,000 in the year ending June 2018.

The falling numbers pose serious challenges for the UK’s labour market, according to Heather Rolfe, associate research director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, who pointed out that employers are reporting serious labour and skills shortages.

‘Repeated announcements that free movement will end have undoubtedly made other EU destinations, or staying put, more appealing,’ she said.

Rolfe is particularly concerned about suggestions that visas will only be available for shorter periods of time. ‘Our research with employers in sectors including hospitality, food processing and social care finds consistently that employers want longer term arrangements, not students on a gap year,’ she said.

‘High staff turnover is costly and bad for productivity: even low skilled jobs include a period of training and familiarisation before a worker is fully productive. Employers also want people who can progress to management positions,’ she pointed out.

‘And they worry about policing short term visas and the financial and reputational damage of unintended infringements,’ she added.

According to a new report from the Centre for Economic Performance, Brexit is likely to lead to a further large fall in immigration from EU nations.