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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Most of us follow the local and especially international news when living abroad. Living in a foreign country carries inherent risks that we are aware of.

But what about serious risks that can come from outside the Philippines? What are the possibilities of an international conflict causing safety concerns or worse, causing a situation where we could not only be under attack but also have no way out?

Interesting thought and one that may be pressing on our minds before long in more than just an idle topic of conversation.

Would China attack the Philippines? Possibly; but there are other ways to project their policies and put pressure on the country. An interesting read is from an article written in July of this year and can be found here..

News information from >> CNN

From last week a FOX video with thoughts on the issue.

Also watch another video below from Fox News
(FOX News)

NOTE: Link not posting correctly. Click on the large word "video" in the green bar Below...

Video








 

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I remember several years ago when they shot down a commercial liner, man it don't get any lower than that, they could have forced the commercial liner down but they give warnings and then fire missiles, if they do this again, I see war.

Problem with China is the same problem with this entire region it's not just one person in charge they share power.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 · (Edited)
I remember several years ago when they shot down a commercial liner, man it don't get any lower than that, they could have forced the commercial liner down but they give warnings and then fire missiles, if they do this again, I see war.

Problem with China is the same problem with this entire region it's not just one person in charge they share power.
That is absolutely true and is something that is no doubt on the minds of many countries and civil air carriers.

At the same time, it seems that China may be raising the stakes yet again. I have a feeling that it is going to get worse before it ever gets any better. I'll add an article that was just published {1pm Dec 3rd) that seems to be turning up the heat even more. This time in the South China Sea.

Read the full story here
(PH Daily Inquirer)
 
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The airlines flight 007 was Korean and a USAF plane was hiding in its radar shadow the Russian sentp a fighter to shoot it down ,,the fighter pilot was given the go ahead to shot and the 747 went down being night time it was hard to see if it was a USAF or civilian plane.. <snip>
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 · (Edited)
I've deleted several post here as the topic is and needs to remain on the current threat being posed by China in the region.

:focus: Try to stay on topic in this thread as it will most likely need to stay active for a time...
 

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They'd need allies first. I'm not sure if North Korea really counts.

Will their current military posturing result in a miscalculation that produces a limited engagement? Possibly.

Will that limited conflict result in mammoth internal pressure to expand the conflict if they lose face? Highly likely.

What will the Chinese government do if they have to chose between risking losing power to an angry domestic populace riding high on nationalistic rhetoric they've been fed for decades and expanding a conflict? Ah, now there lies the nasty question.
 

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The airlines flight 007 was Korean and a USAF plane was hiding in its radar shadow the Russian sentp a fighter to shoot it down ,,the fighter pilot was given the go ahead to shot and the 747 went down being night time it was hard to see if it was a USAF or civilian plane.. <snip>
There was an incident betwern the U.S. and China back in 2001 involving "disputed" airspace. A U.S. Navy EP-3 was involved in a mid air collision with a Chinese fighter. The Chinese plane crashed, killing the pilot. The EP-3 was severely damaged, almost crashed but the pilot regained some control and landed it on the Chinese island of Hainan. The crew was repatriated but the Chinese only returned their aircraft after studying it at length.
Tensions were high but it didn't go beyond words.
U.S. and Chinese economies are very dependent on each other!
 

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They'd need allies first. I'm not sure if North Korea really counts.

Will their current military posturing result in a miscalculation that produces a limited engagement? Possibly.

Will that limited conflict result in mammoth internal pressure to expand the conflict if they lose face? Highly likely.

What will the Chinese government do if they have to chose between risking losing power to an angry domestic populace riding high on nationalistic rhetoric they've been fed for decades and expanding a conflict? Ah, now there lies the nasty question.
Should China decide to make a large military move, the Philippines would be a sitting duck. The Philippine military doesn't have the strength to properly defend itself from any attacker with the power of China. Even though the US is sending help, military wise, it is still not enough. Personally I feel that the US should return to the Philippines with a squadron of B-52s, F-35s, F-22s, F-16s with additional support and tanker aircraft and personnel to operate and maintain them and stationed at Clarke Field. I know that there are 600,000+ US citizens living in the Philippines and in a dire emergency with China about to attack, the US should evacuate all US citizens with their wives and children and bring them to America.

There is a policy with US Immigration that if a US citizen is living in the Philippines, i.e., Leyte, and they lost everything, they and their spouses and children are evacuated back to America because of Typhoon Yolanda. Not to drift from the subject matter of this thread, but under the circumstances of an all out attack by China upon the Philippines in their sweep, this would be a necessity to be done and as quickly as possible.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 · (Edited)
On The Edge

Should China decide to make a large military move, the Philippines would be a sitting duck. The Philippine military doesn't have the strength to properly defend itself from any attacker with the power of China. Even though the US is sending help, military wise, it is still not enough. Personally I feel that the US should return to the Philippines with a squadron of B-52s, F-35s, F-22s, F-16s with additional support and tanker aircraft and personnel to operate and maintain them and stationed at Clarke Field. I know that there are 600,000+ US citizens living in the Philippines and in a dire emergency with China about to attack, the US should evacuate all US citizens with their wives and children and bring them to America.

There is a policy with US Immigration that if a US citizen is living in the Philippines, i.e., Leyte, and they lost everything, they and their spouses and children are evacuated back to America because of Typhoon Yolanda. Not to drift from the subject matter of this thread, but under the circumstances of an all out attack by China upon the Philippines in their sweep, this would be a necessity to be done and as quickly as possible.
Months ago the US announced and had actually already begun to move many military assets into Asia as part of a long term buildup. I'm sure they had pretty good inside information in advance of the moves China is making now as the basis for that Asia buildup. Unless China does something totally stupid, I think the US and other governments would have some advance notice and through their respective embassy's advise their citizens to evacuate the country ahead of impending hostilities.
Stationing military assets such as aircraft and troops etc here would likely make the country an automatic target in a first strike. This is likely the reason this is not being done. Also, I think that with Kadina air base in Okinawa as well as others in Guam, the US alone is pretty well set for any move China might make. I would also guess that the US and other allies already have a large number of military assets in the area - at sea and under the sea that we know nothing about. The biggest problem that I see is the leadership (or lack thereof) that is currently occupying the White House and is in large part the reason that China is starting to push it's luck in the first place.
Below is an interesting video I located that is probably pretty close to accurate in the difference of military power and ability between China and the Philippines military. Surprising and eye opening numbers in the video.
Makes ya want to start packing :behindsofa:!!

 

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I was stationed in Guam and we started working with the Australians back in 1993, we ferried their leaders "Me" to the carrier battle group for the day and worked in and around their bases, I was told back then that we were going to set up a base or joint base there.

Before I retired in 2003 they mentioned that a quick response team of Marines would be stationed on guam, they are there now ( after 10 years on that rock, I never want to see it again).
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
I was stationed in Guam and we started working with the Australians back in 1993, we ferried their leaders "Me" to the carrier battle group for the day and worked in and around their bases, I was told back then that we were going to set up a base or joint base there.

Before I retired in 2003 they mentioned that a quick response team of Marines would be stationed on guam, they are there now ( after 10 years on that rock, I never want to see it again).
My understanding is that now there is also a large contingent of U.S. Navy and Marines at some new base in Australia that is in preparation for just such an event as this. Lets hope they and others are not needed.
Living here in the islands for so long now, I have developed a love and deep respect for the Aussies. Great people with a love of life to match...
 
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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
F-35 Wings

A brand new bird is here and ready to "do it's thing" when needed. Due to call Hill AFB it's new home in Utah, this new bird would turn into a hawk and chew and eat it's way through Piking duck.
The new F-35 is one bird that will undoubtedly feel right at home on flight training ranges as well as sniffing around in our back yard here in paradise :mad2:...

 
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My understanding is that now there is also a large contingent of U.S. Navy and Marines at some new base in Australia that is in preparation for just such an event as this. Lets hope they and others are not needed.
Living here in the islands for so long now, I have developed a love and deep respect for the Aussies. Great people with a love of life to match...
<snip>the base is to be in the Northern territory about 6-7hrs away from here
 

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<snip>the base is to be in the Northern territory about 6-7hrs away from here
Yes it will be in Darwin. They have Marines already rotating thru there (similar to what they used to do at Camps Hansen and Schwab in Okinawa). Guam will eventually be hosting III MEF (Main HQ over 3rd MarDiv/1st MAW)..

And there is the ongoing negotiations for rotational access in the PI. The PAF is already working the nuts and bolts (to include funding) on how to move from Clark to the Subic Freeport Airport.
 

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Darwin is wild place like the foreign legion of OZ lots of booze a few women and all the people wanting to hide or run away from some problem migrate there ..had some great times there lot of good and bad memories
 

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China and danger to Philippines

due to the Philippine constitution, it's not likely that the US will ever have another strategic base in the Philippines. It would take significant acceleration and aggression for the Philippine gov't to reverse that. However, it's possible that with the latest forays, the Philippines will consider a number of alternate solutions such as aircraft carriers moving in and out of the country's waters, "training exercises" together, military trainers on the ground (classified as temporary), further military aid in the way of money/equipment/aircraft/etc.....and so on. There is precedent for this type of aid in recent years, particularly with the efforts to contain Abu Suyaf, and other Al Queda elements.

the Chinese are more "generational" thinkers and planners, and rarely do anything rash or impulsively. They are content to push the envelope, watch the international reaction, then adjust, much as they are doing now with the Taiwanese and the disputed Japanese islands, as well as fishing areas around the Philippines and north/west of Palawan, etc. I don't forsee any drastic military escalation and would expect the Chinese to push a bit, then go quiet, then push again perhaps in other ways or areas, and to continue to assert themselves in such manners all around the Asian arena. They will be content to allow generational change and progress with their foreign policy and international intentions.

This does not mean there are no threats or one shouldn't be concerned and remain aware, but I would not ever expect the Chinese to actually attack the Philippines, especially knowing that the US is a strong ally. The recent events are more likely a testing of Obama's reserve, his apparent hesitancy to react strongly, the Japanese response, and see what comes of it. I believe that for the forseeable future, this will be the pattern.....a continued testing of wills, see what they can get away with or achieve.....
 

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Darwin

Darwin is wild place like the foreign legion of OZ lots of booze a few women and all the people wanting to hide or run away from some problem migrate there ..had some great times there lot of good and bad memories
I hit port in Darwin and another spot I get them confused, one spot we tied up to had cattle (beef) loaded heavily over several hours, thousands and thousands of cows, they had a few cool old fashioned bars and then the other port I liked better it had a shark exhibit trailor by the water and another spot by the ocean sold fish and chips (man were the fish and chips good) they were served or rolled up in paper also in the morning there were coffee shops that served little meat pies and I went to a Crocodile (indoor) farm, this town also had a nice trolley, identical to Canada's public rail system.

I was there in the late 90's and we were working with the leadership ferrying them with the Helicopter from land to our ships and we also swapped crewmen from Australian ships, woke up one morning and the announcement was "waki..waki... waki" LOL the Australian sailors said they get two beers a day rations and girls on the ship, what?
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
Hmmmmm--okay :focus: Please...;)
 
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Can\t see how USA can afford a war when it is in a depression now..maybe get another loan from China?
The Chinese are also running around buy up and thing that will produce and income or food any where in the world.
 
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