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Hi All,

As promised here’s a brief update on what’s been happening with the Australian Dollar over the last week.

The RBA decided to hold official rates steady at 3.75% and wait and see how the record breaking 3 consecutive previous increases impact domestic activity. The post decision statement was generally bullish on the economy, containing upgrades to GDP and inflation expectations, and left the door firmly open for further rates hikes as and when deemed necessary by the Board. The market is now pricing a 50% probability of a hike to 4% in May and 75% for June. The ‘hold’ decision looked prudent later in week when Retail Sales (-0.7% m/m) unexpectedly fell in December, but the sales for the whole of Q4 were up strongly and will make a healthy contribution to quarterly GDP. Other data saw AIG Manufacturing (51.0 from 48.5) and Construction (57.7 from 49.3) move strongly into expansion territory but Services (47.4 from 50.0) slipped back in January. New Building Approvals (+2.2% m/m) look set to underpin the construction sector over H1 2010 and boost GDP as approvals hit levels not seen since May 2004. This week employment data will dominate proceedings on the domestic front.

GBP/AUD Movement – High’s & Low’s of last week (01/02/10 – 05/02/10)
High’s:1.8285
Low’s: 1.7882

A movement of: 2.25%

Difference on £200k

High: AUD365,700
Low: AUD357,640

Difference of: AUD8,060

Whilst FX isn't the most thrilling of subjects, the sooner you begin to think about your money transfers, the more likely you are to make your money go further.

A further update will be added next week.

Regards




Mark Bodega
Director
HIFX
 
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