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Had a play with the numbers to look for patterns:

Mursi's lead over Fotouh grows as you get away from the cities. The combined totals of these two candidates are higher in rural areas too.

Sabbahi is emphatically more popular in the urban and industrial areas than in Upper Egypt. If parts of Cairo and Giza are still not finished, could he overtake Shafiq?

Why is Shafiq nearly 20 times more popular than Moussa in Minoufiya?? I hope there's a decent reason for it!

I'm just doing the numbers here, I'll leave the whys and wherefores to the more knowledgeable members..
 

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Mursi 25.48%
Shafik 24.36%
Abulfutouh 17.90%
Sabbahi 21.33%
Mousa 10.92%

My money was on Mousa - what do I know ???
 

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Mursi 25.48%
Shafik 24.36%
Abulfutouh 17.90%
Sabbahi 21.33%
Mousa 10.92%

My money was on Mousa - what do I know ???
I thought Abul Futouh would be a frontrunner, but hey, if Sabbahi can pull a major win in the remaining 'urban' governorates, I will be more than pleased. Not too much, just enough to nudge his way past Shafiq. It seems very likely to me that Shafiq-voters would back Sabbahi in a run-off scenario as opposed to Mursi.

Can someone explain why Ahmad Shafiq has such a strong following given his thinly-veiled appreciation for Mubarak and his regime in light of the Egyptian people's sentiments?
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
if it's the choice between an Islamist and a military man then I guess the Christian population will go for the military.

what a dilema.. vote for someone who is from the old regime or vote for someone that wants to rule the country through the Koran.. something that you don't believe in.

The only good thing to come out of it is... it is only for 4 years or less.
 

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Yeah I understand that most of the Christians have been forced to pick the lesser of two evils but why Shafik specifically? Sabbahi seems as secular as Shafik without the added weight of being a 'remnant' of the old regime.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Yeah I understand that most of the Christians have been forced to pick the lesser of two evils but why Shafik specifically? Sabbahi seems as secular as Shafik without the added weight of being a 'remnant' of the old regime.
At least he has some experience and is well known...

The problem is that MB and the old regime were really the only people who were organised.. the MB has been waiting in the wings for this day. I wonder if people took into consideration that the MB was not in the revolution until it seemed a done deal,
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Voters admitted they faced tough choices. Hamada, a Cairo hairdresser, told al-Ahram he would vote for the "corrupt" Shafiq to protect his livelihood.

"We don't want an Islamic state, although we believe in the revolution. We need a force to counteract the Islamist-dominated parliament … we need someone to secure our jobs, to allow our wives to walk in the streets and help us raise our children safely.

"I know he's a thief, corrupt and a liar but who isn't? The two Brotherhood candidates [Morsi and Abul Fotouh]? Of course not! And Sabbahi won't reach the second round. I'll lose my job if an Islamist becomes president because my job will be forbidden. Our revolution has been stolen."
 

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Hmm, I can see your point. I don't think many people expected Sabbahi to do as well as he did, but that's all moot now. Looks like the gap between him and Shafik has grown a tad too wide for any last-minute surprises.
 

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No matter the results, the sudden showing of Sabahi is the real story of this election. WIth little advertising and campaigning at that. I mainly heard of him by word of mouth. The results also show that the combination of Sabahi, Aboul Fotouh, and Moussa represent a sizeable huge voting block, and neither Shafiq nor Mursi have a clear majority. That is a good thing, for it tells us that no matter who wins in the end, they don't have a clear mandate to behave unilaterally at all. They may try, but the people won't stand for it. It may also serve to motivate the opposition to become better organised themselves.

Also, while the Ikhwan may appear to present a united front at the moment in Parliament, we'll see just how long that lasts, as plenty of disagreements have surfaced. It's easy to be united in opposition, but less so when they are holding the reigns. There are a lot of different ways that this could play out. Comments that portray the current situation as being "caught between a rock and a hard place" are really something of a false dilemma. It may not be easy, smooth, nonviolent, but this is quite clearly very far from over, said, and done by a long shot.
 

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and Bagato (from the elections commission) is looking into allegations that army and police officers were included in the voters roll...
 
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