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GBP/EUR
Range of the week: 1.1860 – 1.20
Variance on £10k - €140

Although the pound is pushing higher against the euro, in real terms it’s been a flat week – only moving 1.4 cents from high to low as all eyes have been on the US.

Data wise we have had 3 major pieces of information that have been released.
(1) German inflation came out as expected
(2) German unemployment rate came out worse than expected at 6.9%
(3) UK GDP came out slightly less than forecasted at 1.3%
This has not had a major effect on the currency pair.

What has surprised most commentators this morning is the data released by Tesco.
The biggest retailer in the UK has seen their profits decrease by 23.5% for the first half of the financial year.
Although we are starting to see green shoots in the economy with increased consumer spending, big giants such as Tesco have had to decrease their profit margin to keep customers spending.
Tesco’s chief executive has explained there is less pessimism around but customers are still not seeing real disposable income improve.

Later on today the ECB will release their decision on interest rates which is expected to stay the same and President Draghi will make comments later at a press conference.

GBP/USD
Range of the week: 1.5999 – 1.6260
Variance on £10k - $261

All eyes have been on the government shutdown in the US. The US government has partially shut down after the two houses of Congress failed to agree a new budget for the first time in 17 years. More than 700,000 federal employees face unpaid leave, and national parks, museums and many buildings are closed.

Government shutdown will create a data vacuum which means the data expected to release on Friday can potentially be delayed and more importantly for the 700,000 people that have been told not to come back to work are unsure of what their pay packet will be.

The two outcomes to this situation are increasing the debt ceiling which will allow the US government to borrow more money to pay for these staff and services or aggressive cost cutting putting further government jobs at risk. The world waits to see which one is chosen or if something else can be pulled out of the bag that hasn’t been considered.

GBP/AUD
Range of the week: 1.7062 – 1.7420
Variance on £10k – AU$335

No massive changes here. RBA has kept the rate at 2.5% as forecasted.

GBP/NZD
Range of the week: 1.9305 – 1.9747
Variance on £10k – NZ$442

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor John McDermott was speaking last night and made mention to the “neutral” interest rate in NZ having fallen which undermined the kiwi during the overnight session. GBP/NZD is sitting higher as a result this morning.

GBP/CAD
Range of the week: 1.6505 – 1.6781
Variance on £10k – CA$276

The Pound continues to trade at a 3.5 year high against the CAD.
The only major bit of information here is that GDP came out marginally better than forecasted at 1.4%

GBP/ZAR
Range of the week: 15.9 – 16.4055
Variance on £10k – R5055

No major data.
 
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