No future

 

@Aussie_dreamz Thanks for sharing this data.

I do see an approach of reducing permanent visas like 189 significantly. I won't be surprised if they drastically decrease the slots and it would be available to only very high pointers, usually 95+.

It could be a possibility that Australia is looking towards a more longer approach to providing PR than what used to be a simple and short skill select program. Instead of providing direct PRs to offshore candidates, a pathway would be in place for people who initially come onshore on temporary visas like Students. I see the usual pathway of an immigrant being like this:
Student Visa -> Post Study TR Visa -> Employer Sponsored Visa (482) -> Employer Sponsored or 95+ points independent PR
The entire process would easily take 6+ years for an average immigrant.
This is very similar to what is being followed in the US:
F-1 Student Visa -> OPT Work Permit -> H1B Visa -> Sponsorship for Green Card.
It usually takes 5+ years to even get in the queue for a green card. Getting the green card eventually is a different story altogether. This is a very stressfull and long period of uncertainities that skilled immigrants have to go through in the US. I have been through it personally and this was one of the reasons I chose Australia and left my high paying job in the US.

I must say if this is what Australian govt is looking forward to, then it might make many potential immigrants rethink their plans. If getting a PR in Aus is gonna become as hard as getting a green card in the US, 99% immigrants would choose the US.
Not everyone would chose Australia for a laidback lifestyle and great weather like I did. Most immigrants want money and the US definitely provides more money.

 

We were already facing a whole new world even before COVID as the times of quick invitations from Skillselect were long gone by March 2019. 189 SC had a major setback the moment Morrison government came into power (43,990 places in 2018-2019 & 16,652 places in 2019-2020). According to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), almost 90% of PR holders live in major cities. Apparently, the Liberal government’s plan was to ease congestions in large cities like Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, build infrastructure to match the growing population and meanwhile evenly distribute population growth in regional Australia. This decision was also largely fuelled by regional businesses as they are currently facing huge labour shortages in certain skilled and semi-skilled professions

During the consultation process in pre-COVID times (January 2020) for migration program planning 2020-2021, Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) strongly recommended the return of permanent migration to the planning cap of 190,000 places (as opposed to 160,000 places set in 2019-2020 plan). One key point to note is ACCI is the national peak body representing Australian businesses which will always favour increases in consumer demand for goods and services that can only be achieved through immigration and population growth. They emphasised the importance of increasing the proportion of employer sponsored visas under skill stream as it provides access to immediate needs for skilled workers. They also had a very interesting take on Skilled Regional 491 visas and urged government to rethink the established visa criteria as lack of certainty for pathways to PR will prove less attractive to many prospective migrants to settle down in regional areas (https://www.australianchamber.com.a...-content/uploads/2020/01/Planning-Australia-Migration-Program-2020-21-final.pdf)

Even today, students have a reliable pathway to Australian PR (189/190) provided they make informed decisions about their career choice and place of study in Australia. Regional study will give them 5 points for 189 SC and 4 years of post-study work visa. The department has also made a number of recent changes to student visas and 485 TR especially to those students who are stranded offshore as they are starting to realise the importance of making Australia a popular destination among international students for post-pandemic economic recovery

As we all know that the permanent migration program planning levels are a ceiling and not a target and only represent the number of permanent visas which may be granted in a program year. The department would have fallen well short of 160,000 places in 2019-2020. Scott Morrison on many occasions has accepted that 160,000 – 210,000 is an ideal cap for annual permanent migration and must be maintained within that range

I agree that Australia is not the first choice of country for most migrants and it also reflects on the migration program outcomes. Australian government has to compete with other developed economies such as US, Canada, UK, Singapore and Germany to attract skilled migrants. In addition, they have to consider their citizens opinions/emotions on permanent migration, business needs and long-term economic/strategic goals. According to DoHA, 53% of Australians had expressed disapproval over mass immigration (>=190,000) in 2019 which made an impact on the design of migration program for 2019-2020

Above all I think the unfortunate fact is that most of us are facing uncertainty with the new COVID reality. As evident from recent developments, I am sure even the department do not have an established process to follow during these times. It will be very interesting to see the budget announcements and how they respond to such a labyrinth challenge!

 

Great post mate!

I was hoping the new occupation lists will get posted this month. But no signs of it yet.

I've seen YT links of Mara agents claiming DHA's confirmation on retaining the immigration cap (160k) for 2020-21.

My occupation code is 135112 ICT Project Manager. It's not a very popular one and not more than 40-50 PMs are invited every year (NSW alone). It is on the STSOL.

Currently I've got 90 points but my ACS will expire in Sep and I'm not sure if I should invest in Naati. It's considerable amt of money...what if they do remove this occupation?

If you have any insights on this, would love to hear!

Cheers

 

In view of high unemployment rate, the Australian government has announced Job Trainer/Maker program due to commence in September 2020 which will provide Australian citizens the opportunity to complete short VET courses related to a number of industries. From what I understand, the significant impact will be on certain trade occupations under STSOL. I assume that you are in NSW and according to previous eligibility requirements, your occupation had no additional criteria. I am not sure about ICT Project Manager but current labour market needs might also temporarily affect the eligibility criteria and other skilled professions in respective states/territories new occupation list. As I understand, this will only become clear during budget announcements. I think states/territories will announce new occupation list/eligibility requirements once they receive federal allocation with respect to annual nomination places

90/95/100 points has no relevance with the current trend of targeted invitation rounds in Skillselect which I strongly suspect will continue for some time. With that being said if I were in your shoes, I would try to improve my score for SC 189, patiently wait in the queue and also explore other options/pathways to PR

Good Luck!

 

No future is the future

 

More desperate temp visa holders in Australia...Covid has really messed up everything.

https://theconversation.com/garbage...d625cdc41c82655a9835b11450&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=published today

 

This is not right! All humans are equal and equal opportunities should be made available for all.

 

I agree that my response was a bit too harsh. May be because since I have moved to Australia last year, I am stuck at home due to Covid and not able to explore anywhere and that's why bored. I think every one is. But if you are going to invest your life savings on studies, USA has higher prospects. That's my personal opinion.

 

Being one of the many 485 visa holders who is in pursuit of securing permanent residency in Australia, I was curious to know what steps 485 visa holders take to remain in the country after the end of their visa. I recently requested information under FOI to understand the different pathways 485 (TR) Visa holders take after their visa expiry in FY 2018, FY 2019 and FY 2020

Number of 485 Temporary Graduate Visa holders (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)

At 30/06/2019 – 70,172
At 30/06/2020 – 76,940
At 31/01/2021 – 79,511

Number of 500 Student Visa holders (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)
At 30/06/2019 – 450,013
At 30/06/2020 – 482,876
At 31/01/2021 – 376,683

Subclass 500 – Student Visa granted where last substantive visa was 485 Temporary Graduate Visa (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)

FY 2018 Grand Total: 7,349 (Higher Education: 3,156; VET Sector: 3,882)
FY 2019 Grand Total: 9,864 (Higher Education: 3,314; VET Sector: 6,009)
FY 2020 to 31/12/2020 Grand Total: 5,182 (Higher Education:1,457; VET Sector:3,457)

Total Number of 482 Visa grants (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)
FY 2018: 41,220
FY 2019: 28,410
FY 2020 to 30/09/2020 – 7,000

Subclass 482 – Temporary Skill Shortage Visa granted where last substantive visa was 485 Temporary Graduate Visa (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)

FY 2018 Grand Total: 755 (<2%)
FY 2019 Grand Total: 1,116 (<4%)
FY 2020 to 31/12/2020 Grand Total: 672 (~<10%)

Total Number of 186 Visa grants (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)
FY 2018 Grand Total: 42,012
FY 2019 Grand Total: 29,261
FY 2020 to 30/11/2020 Grand Total: 8,472 (Note: Includes Primary and Secondary Applicants)

Subclass 186 – Employer Nomination Scheme granted where last substantive visa was 485 Temporary Graduate Visa (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)

FY 2018 Grand Total: 151 (<3%)
FY 2019 Grand Total: 224 (<8%)
FY 2020 to 31/12/2020 Grand Total: 166 (~<3%)

Total 189 Visa Lodged

(Excludes Secondary and NZ Points-Tested Applicants)
FY 2018 Grand Total: 15,826
FY 2019 to 30/04/2020 Grand Total: 3,267

Subclass 189 – Skilled Independent Visa LODGED where last substantive visa was 485 Temporary Graduate Visa

FY 2018 Grand Total: 5,850 (36% of 189 program)
FY 2019 Grand Total: 1,898 (~50% of 189 program)

Total 190 Visa Lodged
(Includes Primary and Secondary Applicants)
FY 2018 Grand Total: 20,992
FY 2019 Grand Total: 20,512

Subclass 190 – State Nominations LODGED where last substantive visa was 485 Temporary Graduate Visa (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)
FY 2018 Grand Total: 3,545
FY 2019 Grand Total: 5,159
FY 2020 to 31/12/2020 Grand Total: 1,341

In addition, I have also requested the same statistics regarding Student Visa holders that take different pathways to remain in Australia. It will be interesting to see the statistics corresponding to 500 Subclass. It is very evident that a vast majority of student visa and graduate visa holders leave the country upon their completion of study/visa expiry with no plans of settling in Australia

 

Being one of the many 485 visa holders who is in pursuit of securing permanent residency in Australia, I was curious to know what steps 485 visa holders take to remain in the country after the end of their visa. I recently requested information under FOI to understand the different pathways 485 (TR) Visa holders take after their visa expiry in FY 2018, FY 2019 and FY 2020

Number of 485 Temporary Graduate Visa holders (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)
At 30/06/2019 – 70,172
At 30/06/2020 – 76,940
At 31/01/2021 – 79,511

Number of 500 Student Visa holders (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)
At 30/06/2019 – 450,013
At 30/06/2020 – 482,876
At 31/01/2021 – 376,683

Subclass 500 – Student Visa granted where last substantive visa was 485 Temporary Graduate Visa (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)

FY 2018 Grand Total: 7,349 (Higher Education: 3,156; VET Sector: 3,882)
FY 2019 Grand Total: 9,864 (Higher Education: 3,314; VET Sector: 6,009)
FY 2020 to 31/12/2020 Grand Total: 5,182 (Higher Education:1,457; VET Sector:3,457)

Total Number of 482 Visa grants (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)
FY 2018: 41,220
FY 2019: 28,410
FY 2020 to 30/09/2020 – 7,000

Subclass 482 – Temporary Skill Shortage Visa granted where last substantive visa was 485 Temporary Graduate Visa (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)

FY 2018 Grand Total: 755 (<2%)
FY 2019 Grand Total: 1,116 (<4%)
FY 2020 to 31/12/2020 Grand Total: 672 (~<10%)

Total Number of 186 Visa grants (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)
FY 2018 Grand Total: 42,012
FY 2019 Grand Total: 29,261
FY 2020 to 30/11/2020 Grand Total: 8,472 (Note: Includes Primary and Secondary Applicants)

Subclass 186 – Employer Nomination Scheme granted where last substantive visa was 485 Temporary Graduate Visa (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)

FY 2018 Grand Total: 151 (<3%)
FY 2019 Grand Total: 224 (<8%)
FY 2020 to 31/12/2020 Grand Total: 166 (~<3%)

Total 189 Visa Lodged

(Excludes Secondary and NZ Points-Tested Applicants)
FY 2018 Grand Total: 15,826
FY 2019 to 30/04/2020 Grand Total: 3,267

Subclass 189 – Skilled Independent Visa LODGED where last substantive visa was 485 Temporary Graduate Visa

FY 2018 Grand Total: 5,850 (36% of 189 program)
FY 2019 Grand Total: 1,898 (~50% of 189 program)

Total 190 Visa Lodged
(Includes Primary and Secondary Applicants)
FY 2018 Grand Total: 20,992
FY 2019 Grand Total: 20,512

Subclass 190 – State Nominations LODGED where last substantive visa was 485 Temporary Graduate Visa (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)
FY 2018 Grand Total: 3,545
FY 2019 Grand Total: 5,159
FY 2020 to 31/12/2020 Grand Total: 1,341

In addition, I have also requested the same statistics regarding Student Visa holders that take different pathways to remain in Australia. It will be interesting to see the statistics corresponding to 500 Subclass. It is very evident that a vast majority of student visa and graduate visa holders leave the country upon their completion of study/visa expiry with no plans of settling in Australia

Super helpful info

 

Hi Everyone,
I am sharing some useful insights from the recent parliamentary inquiry into skilled migration. Although, this has received a significant backlash from the opposition parties in Australia, I have shared some useful links below, which I hope brings some hope into prospective skilled migrants on this forum.

Article on AFR - Door opens for skilled migrants but unions say it’s a disgrace
Article on The Guardian - Prioritise skilled migrants over some returning Australians, migration committee advises

Link to the inquiry by the parliamentary committee, where you can view the submissions by various organizations, industry bodies and individuals, which raises hope - Inquiry into Australia's skilled migration program – Parliament of Australia

Cheers,
Sesh

 

Hi Everyone,
I am sharing some useful insights from the recent parliamentary inquiry into skilled migration. Although, this has received a significant backlash from the opposition parties in Australia, I have shared some useful links below, which I hope brings some hope into prospective skilled migrants on this forum.

Thanks for the article links Sesh! I heard about this on SBS yesterday but the only articles I could find were behind a paywall. The submissions to the Joint Standing Committee on Migration are an interesting read.

I applied for 189 in Sept. 2020 (offshore) and like so many others on this forum have a vested interest in any potential changes to processes/timelines for skilled visa grants.

 

I finally received the statistics corresponding to Student Visa holders who pursue different visa pathways to remain in Australia (Please note: Data Includes Primary Applicants Only)

Number of 485 Temporary Graduate Visa holders (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)

At 30/06/2019 – 70,172
At 30/06/2020 – 76,940
At 31/01/2021 – 79,511

Number of 500 Student Visa holders (Note: Data Includes Primary Applicants only)
At 30/06/2019 – 450,013
At 30/06/2020 – 482,876
At 31/01/2021 – 376,683

Visa applications granted for 482 Temporary Skill Shortage where last substantive visa was Student Visa Subclass 500

• FY 2018-2019: 1,279
• FY 2019-2020: 1,527
• FY 2020-2021: 853 (Until 31/01/2021)

Visa applications granted for 485 Temporary Graduate where last substantive visa was Student Visa Subclass 500

• FY 2018-2019: 3,575
• FY 2019-2020: 5,301
• FY 2020-2021: 2,969 (Until 31/01/2021)

Visa applications granted for 186 ENS where last substantive visa was Student Visa Subclass 500

• FY 2018-2019: 98
• FY 2019-2020: 188
• FY 2020-2021: 196 (Until 31/01/2021)

Visa applications lodged for 189 Skilled Independent Visa where last substantive visa was Student Visa Subclass 500

• FY 2018-2019: 1,803
• FY 2019-2020: 693
• FY 2020-2021: 99 (Until 31/01/2021)

Visa applications lodged for 190 State Nominated Visa where last substantive visa was Student Visa Subclass 500

• FY 2018-2019: 1,254
• FY 2019-2020: 1,795
• FY 2020-2021: 467 (Until 31/01/2021)

Visa applications granted for Student Visa Subclass 500 Visa where last substantive visa was Student Visa Subclass 500

• FY 2018-2019: 109,309 (Higher Ed: 63,693; VET Sector: 36,400)
• FY 2019-2020: 112,549 (Higher Ed: 63,495; VET Sector: 40,015)
• FY 2020-2021: 65,949 (Until 31/01/2021) (Higher Ed: 35,108; VET Sector: 26,839)

It is very interesting to note that less than ~8% of primary graduate visa holders previously held a student visa. For ex: Out of ~76,000 primary graduate visa holders in 2019-2020, only 5,301 applicants were granted temporary graduate visa who previously held student visa 500. I clarified this statistic with the FOI officer and apparently a lot of applicants apply for other visas such as another student visa, tourist visa before applying for 485. Majority of student visa holders apply for another student visa for higher education/VET sector

• Student visa and graduate visa holders accounted for 48% of 189 program in 2018-2019 (1,803 and 5,850 respectively out of 15,826 applications lodged)
• Student visa and graduate visa holders accounted for 75% of 189 program in 2019-2020 (693 and 1,898 respectively out of 3,450 applications lodged)

There may be few student visa and graduate visa holders who might have pursued 489/491 Regional Visas in 2018-2020. However, I suspect this proportion is small compared to the vast majority of student visa holders in Australia