Expat Forum For People Moving Overseas And Living Abroad banner

Status
Not open for further replies.
1 - 20 of 2463 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,085 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Thought it was worth starting a new thread about the state of Brexit post-election and the negotiations to come.

This is what I think (hope:fingerscrossed:) the situation is now...

... it is likely that in coming months a “remainist” or perhaps “softest” fifth column will open up across parliament and among the lobbyists. The collapse of Ukip and the probable increase in emboldened remain MPs clearly undermines whatever May’s “hard Brexit” stance was meant to achieve.
Coupled with the result itself, this should tilt the balance towards a more accommodating approach on both sides. The EU and Britain must clearly compromise, to honour last year’s referendum yet without the manifest shambles of a negotiating failure.
Common sense indicates that, at the day’s end, Britain must somehow stay within the regulatory regime of a European customs union. Since that would leave migration as the chief bone of contention, and since some deal on the movement of workers is vital for British industry, it is now possible to see negotiations slithering towards a “Norwegian” version of a single market. If so, this election could prove a blessing, albeit in heavy disguise.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,252 Posts
But will the Tory Party be able to resist tearing itself apart (again) over Europe, if the "hard Brexit" supporting MPs insist on keeping to that line? If they were to vote against whatever Theresa May comes back with (or force a vote of no confidence even if they aren't offered a vote on the deal itself), she would be sunk.
 

·
Read Only
Joined
·
18,642 Posts
But David Davis and Boris Johnson are keeping their positions - I thought they were for hard Brexit (but perhaps I'm mistaken).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
17,566 Posts
Bear in mind that May depends on (a) the DUP and (b) the Scottish tory votes and both Northern Ireland and Scotland want to remain in the EU. If both parties have any sense they could team up with May's own remainers and force her hand to withdraw Art 50
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
19,394 Posts
Thought it was worth starting a new thread about the state of Brexit post-election and the negotiations to come.

This is what I think (hope:fingerscrossed:) the situation is now...
Interesting.
Can someone explain what a
"Norwegian” version of a single market
is?
What kind of deal do they have?
Save
 

·
Registered
U.K.
Joined
·
9,111 Posts
My take

Brexit will still happen... they'll never go back on the referendum vote
They may well muddy the waters and Brexit might not mean Brexit:rolleyes:


The way the conservative leaders have run the election, their continuing Uturns, last night Downing Street announced a deal, except the people they're doing the deal with said.... actually no, not yet....... these people are negotiating with the EU...... all this leads me to believe that whatever Brexit is, it's going to be farcical for the U.K.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,085 Posts
Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Interesting.
Can someone explain what a
is?
What kind of deal do they have?
Save
This explains it quite well I think.

Essentially they have full unfettered access to the internal market (including the four freedoms) but have to pay for it and are subject to a large number of EU rules and have little say in making those rules.

In the run-up to the referendum last year Farage said 'would a Norwegian style relationship really be so bad?' however he has now said following the election that he would not be satisfied with 'backsliding, and Brexit in name only'.

IMO a Norwegian style relationship is probably the least damaging and the best we can hope for (barring ditching Brexit altogether).
 

·
Registered
U.K.
Joined
·
9,111 Posts
This explains it quite well I think.

Essentially they have full unfettered access to the internal market (including the four freedoms) but have to pay for it and are subject to a large number of EU rules and have little say in making those rules.

In the run-up to the referendum last year Farage said 'would a Norwegian style relationship really be so bad?' however he has now said following the election that he would not be satisfied with 'backsliding, and Brexit in name only'.

IMO a Norwegian style relationship is probably the least damaging and the best we can hope for (barring ditching Brexit altogether).


Just watching sky news, and the chat about BJ being next PM and his views on Brexit. It was said that he was never a real hard brexiteer, he wanted reforms.... he would it appears prefer a Norwegian type deal ! ! !
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
19,394 Posts
This explains it quite well I think.

Essentially they have full unfettered access to the internal market (including the four freedoms) but have to pay for it and are subject to a large number of EU rules and have little say in making those rules.

In the run-up to the referendum last year Farage said 'would a Norwegian style relationship really be so bad?' however he has now said following the election that he would not be satisfied with 'backsliding, and Brexit in name only'.

IMO a Norwegian style relationship is probably the least damaging and the best we can hope for (barring ditching Brexit altogether).
Wow, seems possibly quite a volatile situation that works for Norway only because they've seen that it's better to never talk about it again! Would the voters/ politicians in Britain be able to do the same? The voters might be quite happy to not be asked to vote again (remember Brenda from Bristol?),
but can the politicians keep their ballot boxes locked up like they have in Norway?:)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,085 Posts
Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Just watching sky news, and the chat about BJ being next PM and his views on Brexit. It was said that he was never a real hard brexiteer, he wanted reforms.... he would it appears prefer a Norwegian type deal ! ! !
Well - fine - apart from BJ being PM.:rolleyes:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
620 Posts
[Essentially they have full unfettered access to the internal market (including the four freedoms) but have to pay for it and are subject to a large number of EU rules and have little say in making those
We have Norwegian neighbours who are very switched on. They tell us that although officially they have little say in the decision making, they do sit in on all the committee meetings in the discussion stage, and put in their 4 krone´s worth. Skol!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,085 Posts
Discussion Starter · #15 ·
We have Norwegian neighbours who are very switched on. They tell us that although officially they have little say in the decision making, they do sit in on all the committee meetings in the discussion stage, and put in their 4 krone´s worth. Skol!
That's good.

What could stymie a Norwegian deal is freedom of movement of people which both the Tories and Labour have said in their manifestos they will end.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
15,744 Posts
We've been here before, neither the Norway model (in EEA and EFTA) nor the Swiss model (in EFTA but not EEA) is really feasible for Britain. The UK would be bound by all the things Brexiters voted against - four freedoms, financial contributions, hav8ing to abide by EU regulations etc - without having a say in policy.

If it did accept the Norway model, the UK would be spared the one-off divorce bill but would need to keep paying indefinitely for all it covers. Taking into account what the UK gets back from the EU (grants, subsidies etc), Norway pays almost as much per capita as the UK does now.

The Swiss trade deal took 25 years to negotiate. Britain has less than a year ...

http://www.spiegel.de/international...-switzerland-and-norway-models-a-1096952.html
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
15,744 Posts
That's good.

What could stymie a Norwegian deal is freedom of movement of people which both the Tories and Labour have said in their manifestos they will end.
Whatever the parties said in their manifestos, freedom of movement will still exist in some form or other. British businesses and institutions like the NHS need to employ EU workers, both skilled and unskilled.

But they could put restrictions on freedom of movement e.g. by invoking the same procedures as Spain does - proof of financial independence, private healthcare etc. after three months. This option has always been there, it just hasn't been implemented because it would make it harder for businesses to recruit.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,252 Posts
Whatever the parties said in their manifestos, freedom of movement will still exist in some form or other. British businesses and institutions like the NHS need to employ EU workers, both skilled and unskilled.

But they could put restrictions on freedom of movement e.g. by invoking the same procedures as Spain does - proof of financial independence, private healthcare etc. after three months. This option has always been there, it just hasn't been implemented because it would make it harder for businesses to recruit.
I can't see why it would make it harder for businesses to recruit if the UK adopted the same model as Spain, whereby a migrant holding an employment contract is eligible to register, and paying social security contributions guarantees state health cover for themselves and their families. The proof of financial independence and private healthcare only comes into play for those who are not working.
 

·
Registered
U.K.
Joined
·
9,111 Posts
Whatever the parties said in their manifestos, freedom of movement will still exist in some form or other. British businesses and institutions like the NHS need to employ EU workers, both skilled and unskilled.

But they could put restrictions on freedom of movement e.g. by invoking the same procedures as Spain does - proof of financial independence, private healthcare etc. after three months. This option has always been there, it just hasn't been implemented because it would make it harder for businesses to recruit.

Yep

This has been muted on radio and TV this morning..... restricted borders but not quite so:rolleyes:

If it wasn't so serious, one could be forgiven for laughing.... Even hard brexiteers are more muted in their opinions. :cheer2:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
15,744 Posts
I can't see why it would make it harder for businesses to recruit if the UK adopted the same model as Spain, whereby a migrant holding an employment contract is eligible to register, and paying social security contributions guarantees state health cover for themselves and their families. The proof of financial independence and private healthcare only comes into play for those who are not working.
I don't know. I heard a CBI spokesperson say it once. I suppose they think it would deter people coming on the off-chance of finding casual work - which it probably would. That would be pretty disastrous for the hospitality industry, for a start.
 
1 - 20 of 2463 Posts
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top