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No job land - Page 9


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  #81 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 09:05 AM
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Originally Posted by mrypg9 View Post
To put the terms 'libertarian ' and 'thought ' too closely together is an oxymoron. Just like the terms 'free' and 'market'.
Such views are based not on deep thought but gut instinct. They serve to justify selfishness and greed.
Goldeneye is being honest in admitting the role greed played in her decisions. Credit where it's due.
I think she is just saying that she made the wrong prediction regarding markets and got burnt. My point is that nobody gets the predictions right in a meaningful way. It sounds like the mistake Goldeneye made was she got overly exposed to one sector and didn't hedge properly.

Let's face it, we're all in it to make money - you don't purposely put savings into accounts that lose you money do you? You didn't invest in property to lose money did you? And you didn't run a car business to fix people's cars for free. Goldeneye just did what everyone does - they put their money where they thought it would grow most.

She regrets not getting out and puts it down to greed, but she wouldn't be saying that if she hadn't lost money. If I had followed my predictions I would have got out of UK property back in 2005 but I didn't because I couldn't be bothered to sell while living in Spain. I got lucky because as it it turned out my mortgage interest payments were slashed and the property is now worth more than it was before the crash. On the other hand I know people who sold-to-rent back in 2003, thinking there would be a crash, and now they can't afford to buy back the property they sold. Were they being greedy?

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  #82 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 10:13 AM
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4) You can't make that point.
Sure I can. I just did.

Quote:
Social security is a future liability.
If you're talking about everything that happens until 2033 or 2034, i.e. twice the standard Congressional Budget Office planning horizon, no, it's not. Or at least it's a fully forecast future liability, forecast and prepared for decades ago. It's a pay-as-you-go system with an accumulated trust fund working exactly as designed. If you're talking about 2034 and beyond, and the level of benefits Social Security is paying, that's a future promise, yes. Whether Congress chooses to fulfill that promise or not is a political question. I think Congress should, and the easiest way to do that is to lift the payroll tax cap and broaden the payroll tax base to include unearned income. Which is exactly what Congress did for Medicare, as it happens.

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Saying they'll cut future payouts is like saying they'll pick who eats and who starves. Politicans rarely make those choices.
Congress makes those decisions all the time. They don't necessarily like to make those decisions, and some of them are default decisions (i.e. decisions through inaction), but those decisions get made.

But nobody has to starve. Inaction means that starting in 2033 or 2034 retirees will receive 75% of inflation-adjusted benefits. That's the absolute worst that could happen, and that's not actually a catastrophe. My preference -- and most Americans would agree with me -- is to maintain 100% benefit levels or better including full COLAs. And to do that is very easy: charge rich people a bit more.

Who's paying for Mr. Walker's video, by the way? Let me guess...somebody who has enjoyed/is enjoying a great deal of wealth and financial success in life?

....Wow, what a surprise: yes. I guessed correctly. Do I win a prize from Peter Peterson, too?

Quote:
Hiking taxes has it's own issues. It can easily end up counterproductive. Europe is showing this.
No, Europe is demonstrating the results of cutting public spending in the wake of a huge financial crisis. That causes widespread misery, especially when you don't have your own currency and thus don't have adequate (or any) monetary policy response. Sweden, which has among the highest taxation levels in the world and also its own currency, is doing just fine, thank you.

The U.S. has tremendous untapped taxing power. That's just a fact, demonstrated both within U.S. fiscal history and also across other countries (e.g. Sweden). Indeed, if the U.S. Congress wished it could pay every man, woman, and child a decent guaranteed basic income with taxes set at a relatively modest percentage of the U.S. economy's total output in global terms. Corporate taxes, for example, used to represent about 6% of GDP in the 1950s and now have crashed below 2%. (I noticed Mr. Walker didn't illustrate those statistics either.)

I also notice Mr. Walker left out Japan from his debt comparisons. If debt is such a big problem, then one must have an explanation for Japan's successes. The Japanese government has had the lowest borrowing costs in the world -- at negative real rates -- for over two decades and counting.

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The real issue is that those social security contributions are a free loan for the government. Those contributions go into general revenues right?
So what? Social Security is extremely well designed and extremely efficient. Roosevelt was a genius. To the extent it's a loan, it'll get paid back, primarily via corporate and individual income taxes either in the present or on a deferred basis using government debt instruments (bonds) denominated in nominal fiat currency.

Quote:
5) Pentagon has always been a make work project. It's the largest Keynesian government plan in the world.
It's not the best Keynesianism. Repairing infrastructure (water mains, sewers, bridges, rail lines, mass transit, public buildings, parks, dams, etc., etc.) would be a better choice.
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  #83 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 10:16 AM
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I fully expect that both of my predictions will come true during the next 10 years. What does that tell you? It should tell you that predictions mean ****** all unless you provide a precise time frame. It's no use predicting a crash if the markets go up by another 40% before the crash happens.
Spot on.

The only relevance to any prediction of what the market might do is timing, timing and timing.

If you time it correctly you'll make money, if you don't time it correctly, you'll lose money.

As you rightly say, markets go up and down all the time (the traders and market makers almost rig it that way, it's how they make their money) because economies are cyclical. History tells us that, what goes up usually comes down and what comes down usually goes up. The real key is in predicting what will go up, what will come down and most importantly - when.

If I could accurately predict when interest rates will rise, I'd make a fortune, and whilst I have an idea (or loose prediction of when it will happen) I don't know exactly when. All I know is, they will rise at some point in the future.

Timing is everything.
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  #84 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 10:45 AM
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Originally Posted by BBCWatcher View Post


No, Europe is demonstrating the results of cutting public spending in the wake of a huge financial crisis. That causes widespread misery, especially when you don't have your own currency and thus don't have adequate (or any) monetary policy response. Sweden, which has among the highest taxation levels in the world and also its own currency, is doing just fine, thank you.

I also notice Mr. Walker left out Japan from his debt comparisons. If debt is such a big problem, then one must have an explanation for Japan's successes. The Japanese government has had the lowest borrowing costs in the world -- at negative real rates -- for over two decades and counting.


So what? Social Security is extremely well designed and extremely efficient. Roosevelt was a genius. To the extent it's a loan, it'll get paid back, primarily via corporate and individual income taxes either in the present or on a deferred basis using government debt instruments (bonds) denominated in nominal fiat currency.


It's not the best Keynesianism. Repairing infrastructure (water mains, sewers, bridges, rail lines, mass transit, public buildings, parks, dams, etc., etc.) would be a better choice.
Most of Europe hasn't really cut spending. Much of what they've done is hike taxes. If they had cut spending things would have been even worse. Greece is the main country to have cut spending.

Sweden hasn't had to contribute anything to the Euro bailouts.

Japan has had deflation most of those years. How often in the last twenty years have real rates been negative in Japan? What success BTW?

Japan basically started out with the same plan Europe is on now. Go back. They hiked interest rates. Just like the ECB did. They cut spending. It wasn't until 1995 IIRC they even tried anything else. At least that's my memory. By the point they woke up things had totally crashed.

A pay as you go system today is well designed??? A system intended to deal with a population that lived maybe two years in retirement. Would anybody start a pension system today that was set up that way?

They are repairing infrastructure. It's just human and not physical. Investing in people is no less important. How many of the military would have had access to the training they received ?

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  #85 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 11:45 AM
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Users Flag! Originally from england. Users Flag! Expat in spain.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chopera View Post
I think she is just saying that she made the wrong prediction regarding markets and got burnt. My point is that nobody gets the predictions right in a meaningful way. It sounds like the mistake Goldeneye made was she got overly exposed to one sector and didn't hedge properly.

Let's face it, we're all in it to make money - you don't purposely put savings into accounts that lose you money do you? You didn't invest in property to lose money did you? And you didn't run a car business to fix people's cars for free. Goldeneye just did what everyone does - they put their money where they thought it would grow most.

She regrets not getting out and puts it down to greed, but she wouldn't be saying that if she hadn't lost money. If I had followed my predictions I would have got out of UK property back in 2005 but I didn't because I couldn't be bothered to sell while living in Spain. I got lucky because as it it turned out my mortgage interest payments were slashed and the property is now worth more than it was before the crash. On the other hand I know people who sold-to-rent back in 2003, thinking there would be a crash, and now they can't afford to buy back the property they sold. Were they being greedy?
I think all such predictions are worthless as market transactions are the result of millions upon millions of individual decisions and thankfully humans have not reached the stage where our behaviour can be predicted with such exactitude.
I hope we never will.

But yes, if she had made money she might well be congratulating herself on her prescience.

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