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  #71 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 12:34 AM
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In fact I don't think anybody really predicted the events over the last decade or so. I thought there'd be housing crash in the UK back in 2003 but I was 5 years too early, and when it did happen I thought it would be bigger than it was. I didn't foresee QE re-inflating asset prices to such an extent. I thought about buying gold in 2008 but decided not to, and missed out on that little bubble. Let's face it, if I could predict these things then I'd be a lot richer by now.
Total Rubbish..... Plenty of people predicted it.. The media only reports what the government and wall Street want them to report...
look up the contrarian thinkers, you can easily do a search.. everything they have said is somewhere in cyberspace.... YES they did predict the events that the 'boom' the 'Easy money mortgages, NINJA Mortgages etc would end in disaster, they were the ones that suggested protecting yourself from the coming financial crisis by investing in Gold.. Stupidly I invested in the Stocks rather than the metal...

I remember being in Mexico sitting in Bed listening to Paulson in front of the TV Cameras say to the World the worst of the credit crisis behind us.. I still remember turning to my hubby aghast saying if we 'nobodies' know the worst is yet to come.. He surely must know.. A few weeks later Lehman went down...

But I'm not here to argue the point.. take it or leave it.. whatever I say probably won't make one iota difference to you.. Read some of the names I mentioned and either think they were talking outta their collective as ses ~ or not..

Either way, I'm not that smart, to not take profits on the way up... I made a fortune only to lose it through sheer greed!!

I'm not bothered if you believe me or not.. Here is just one of Peter Schiff's comments In an August 2006 interview Schiff said: "The United States is like the Titanic and I am here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship... I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States."[17] On December 31, 2006 in a telecast debate on Fox News, Schiff forecast that "what's going to happen in 2007 is that real estate prices", which had peaked at the end of 2005,[18] "are going to come crashing back down to Earth".

In his 2007 book Crash Proof, Schiff wrote that United States economic policies were fundamentally unsound.[19] Since then, he has stated many times that, without a change in U.S. government economic policy, there will be hyperinflation in the U.S
NBC would drown him out, and ridicule him.. I'd been following his reports for years...

..




..

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  #72 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 01:02 AM
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Most of these people are forward thinkers looking at 'Cause and effect'

I also own the following books which I purchased hard copy back in the day.... by Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin, Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century (2003) and Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis (2005)

I don't see them as 'too early' they were predicting what would happen if administration of the time continued along it's current path..

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15892...aper_15892.pdf <<<<< This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-fund) macroeconomic models helped
anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not.

I love this guy... the former comptroller general David Walker, left his position to try and warn and educate the public about what was and is still happening..



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  #73 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 04:00 AM
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I have at least three major problems with this video:

1. Government debt is not inherently bad. Countercyclical government debt is generally exceptionally good, in fact. And who would even attempt to argue that the United States should not have gone into debt in the early 1940s to defeat the Nazis? You cannot start any sort of sensible argument with "debt=bad." It's not. Sometimes debt is fantastic, sometimes it's "bad," and sometimes it's merely innocuous. It's never fatal in a fiat currency regime.

2. The video conveniently omitted U.S. comparisons of total government spending versus total government spending in Europe as percentages of GDP. The fact: the U.S is on the low side in that comparison.

3. The video also conveniently omitted U.S. total tax revenue collections (as a percentage of GDP) versus European norms. The fact: those are lower in the U.S., too.

If you combine #2 and #3, you end up with the (correct) conclusion that the United States doesn't spend a whole lot (though much more on defense and less efficiently on medical care) compared to Europe, and the U.S. also has vast untapped taxing power. In short, there's no problem: just increase taxes, primarily on the wealthy and corporations, if you want to reduce deficits. Problem solved!

The comparison with 1912 is silly. We also had polio in 1912, unprecedented rates of immigration, and low life expectancies, among other differences. You might quibble at the margins about the appropriate size and scope of government, but the wrong answer is 1912's.

I suspect David Walker doesn't like that particular solution (higher taxes) to what is mostly a non-problem, at least at this time, but there it is.

OK, moving on to some other issues, one is Social Security. Social Security doesn't add to the debt or deficit. It cannot, by law. It's a contributory program, fully funded by payroll taxes. It's doing very well and will have enough funds to pay out promised benefits, including cost of living adjustments, until about 2033. Thereafter it will start paying out about 75% of promised benefits if Congress does nothing. If Congress simply eliminates the payroll tax cap and extends payroll taxes to non-earned income (as has already been done for Medicare in a fashion), that 2033 date pushes out to something approaching infinity.

The national security budget is out of control and, contrary to David Walker's presentation, represents the largest slice of the federal budget. (The figure Walker describes is only for "core" defense spending, i.e. the DoD and a bit, not the full costs of the national security state which include other parts of the overall budget in DOE, DOT, and many other agencies.) Defense spending should not be properly viewed as a percentage of GDP but rather as real (inflation-adjusted) costs against a baseline -- that would be the comparison that would make at least more sense in 1912 v. 2012 terms. It's not more expensive (in real terms) to defend the United States in 2014 at the same level than it was in 1968 -- the territorial size of the United States hasn't changed. And that's the problem. U.S. national security spending is incredibly inflated compared even to height of Cold War levels. So if you want to reduce government spending, that's the biggest place to do it.

The next biggest place is healthcare costs, but that's been a good story lately with reduced healthcare inflation rates. The U.S. has a very cost inefficient healthcare system, and moving closer to any of the universal European systems would be fine. Just pick one. The PPACA ("Obamacare") takes the U.S. closer to Switzerland and the Netherlands, two of the most expensive systems in Europe. Move more toward France, for example, and you reduce costs and improve quality/coverage even further. The State of Vermont is going to give that a try starting in 2017, and as Vermont goes so goes the nation (we can hope). In short, socialized medicine is cheap and effective. If you think government debt is bad, then you should favor "socialized medicine," and the more socialized the better.
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  #74 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 07:03 AM
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Total Rubbish..... Plenty of people predicted it.. The media only reports what the government and wall Street want them to report...
look up the contrarian thinkers, you can easily do a search.. everything they have said is somewhere in cyberspace.... YES they did predict the events that the 'boom' the 'Easy money mortgages, NINJA Mortgages etc would end in disaster, they were the ones that suggested protecting yourself from the coming financial crisis by investing in Gold.. Stupidly I invested in the Stocks rather than the metal...

..
Ron Paul is a contrarian thinker?

Thinking like Hoover isn't contrarian.

Remember many of his like shorted US Tresuries and then voted against things like the Paulson bill. Planning on profiting from destroying the US economy. In a normal country they'd have been charged with insider trading. Or treason. Ask yourself why it's legal for US politicans to engage in insider trading.

Gold? You can't eat it. Burn it. Every oz ever mined still exists. It's only value is what a greater fool will give you for it. Tulips you can eat.

The best part about gold is the people who love it ignore the central banks pushing up it's price by buying tonnes of it. Then they complain about the central banks buying bonds.

The Schiffs of the world want a market clearing price for everything but what they own. Let the central banks dump all the gold they own on the market so we can see how little it's really worth.
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  #75 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 07:15 AM
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I have at least three major problems with this video:

1. Government debt is not inherently bad. Countercyclical government debt is generally exceptionally good, in fact. And who would even attempt to argue that the United States should not have gone into debt in the early 1940s to defeat the Nazis? You cannot start any sort of sensible argument with "debt=bad." It's not. Sometimes debt is fantastic, sometimes it's "bad," and sometimes it's merely innocuous. It's never fatal in a fiat currency regime.

2. The video conveniently omitted U.S. comparisons of total government spending versus total government spending in Europe as percentages of GDP. The fact: the U.S is on the low side in that comparison.

3. The video also conveniently omitted U.S. total tax revenue collections (as a percentage of GDP) versus European norms. The fact: those are lower in the U.S., too.
.

OK, moving on to some other issues, one is Social Security. Social Security doesn't add to the debt or deficit. It cannot, by law. It's a contributory program, fully funded by payroll taxes. It's doing very well and will have enough funds to pay out promised benefits, including cost of living adjustments, until about 2033. Thereafter it will start paying out about 75% of promised benefits if Congress does nothing. If Congress simply eliminates the payroll tax cap and extends payroll taxes to non-earned income (as has already been done for Medicare in a fashion), that 2033 date pushes out to something approaching infinity.

The national security budget is out of control and, contrary to David Walker's presentation, represents the largest slice of the federal budget. (The figure Walker describes is only for "core" defense spending, i.e. the DoD and a bit, not the full costs of the national security state which include other parts of the overall budget in DOE, DOT, and many other agencies.) Defense spending should not be properly viewed as a percentage of GDP but rather as real (inflation-adjusted) costs against a baseline -- that would be the comparison that would make at least more sense in 1912 v. 2012 terms. It's not more expensive (in real terms) to defend the United States in 2014 at the same level than it was in 1968 -- the territorial size of the United States hasn't changed. And that's the problem. U.S. national security spending is incredibly inflated compared even to height of Cold War levels. So if you want to reduce government spending, that's the biggest place to do it.
1) People ignore the fact that normal people use debt every day. Home mortgage. Business loans. You name it.

2) You can't compare government spending without comparing the total services delivered. If you add in the 20% of health costs in the US then total US spending is likely higher then most countries.

3) same point. It doesn't matter to the citizen if the money goes out in taxes or health insurance. The disposable ends up the same

4) You can't make that point. Social security is a future liability. You can call it off balance sheet but it exists. Saying they'll cut future payouts is like saying they'll pick who eats and who starves. Politicans rarely make those choices. Hiking taxes has it's own issues. It can easily end up counterproductive. Europe is showing this .

The real issue is that those social security contributions are a free loan for the government. Those contributions go into general revenues right?

5) Pentagon has always been a make work project. It's the largest Keynesian government plan in the world.
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  #76 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 07:40 AM
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To put the terms 'libertarian ' and 'thought ' too closely together is an oxymoron. Just like the terms 'free' and 'market'.
Such views are based not on deep thought but gut instinct. They serve to justify selfishness and greed.
Goldeneye is being honest in admitting the role greed played in her decisions. Credit where it's due.

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  #77 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 07:53 AM
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Although we travel in Spain, and do not live there, it has always astounded us to see shops closing for siesta, and closing completely Sat afternoon, etc, when LOTS of shoppers are wandering the very streets looking to SHOP! Have they ever heard of taking alternating lunch breaks so that the shop can remain open and do some business?
The only fools looking to shop at that hours are foreign tourists.

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  #78 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 08:05 AM
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The only fools looking to shop at that hours are foreign tourists.
By 2pm the streets of Estepona are deserted. It's as if a giant vacuum cleaner had sucked everyone up. At 5pm the streets start filling again.
While forlorn tourists wander the empty streets searching for somewhere to buy something sensible Spaniards are enjoying a leisurely lunch, chatting with friends or family, making love..
Whoever said 'Man is born free but everywhere I see him in chains'- Rousseau? - was spot-on. We forge our own chains.
Of course a happy life requires food, shelter and stability. You have to work for those things. But the 'joy' of possessions is transient. It fades very rapidly. My partner, family, friends and dogs are beyond any material worth, even if they do piss me off at times, as no doubt I do them.
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  #79 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Goldeneye View Post
Total Rubbish..... Plenty of people predicted it.. The media only reports what the government and wall Street want them to report...
look up the contrarian thinkers, you can easily do a search.. everything they have said is somewhere in cyberspace.... YES they did predict the events that the 'boom' the 'Easy money mortgages, NINJA Mortgages etc would end in disaster, they were the ones that suggested protecting yourself from the coming financial crisis by investing in Gold.. Stupidly I invested in the Stocks rather than the metal...

I remember being in Mexico sitting in Bed listening to Paulson in front of the TV Cameras say to the World the worst of the credit crisis behind us.. I still remember turning to my hubby aghast saying if we 'nobodies' know the worst is yet to come.. He surely must know.. A few weeks later Lehman went down...

But I'm not here to argue the point.. take it or leave it.. whatever I say probably won't make one iota difference to you.. Read some of the names I mentioned and either think they were talking outta their collective as ses ~ or not..

Either way, I'm not that smart, to not take profits on the way up... I made a fortune only to lose it through sheer greed!!

I'm not bothered if you believe me or not.. Here is just one of Peter Schiff's comments In an August 2006 interview Schiff said: "The United States is like the Titanic and I am here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship... I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States."[17] On December 31, 2006 in a telecast debate on Fox News, Schiff forecast that "what's going to happen in 2007 is that real estate prices", which had peaked at the end of 2005,[18] "are going to come crashing back down to Earth".

In his 2007 book Crash Proof, Schiff wrote that United States economic policies were fundamentally unsound.[19] Since then, he has stated many times that, without a change in U.S. government economic policy, there will be hyperinflation in the U.S
NBC would drown him out, and ridicule him.. I'd been following his reports for years...

Ron Paul's 2002 Predictions All Come True - Incredible Video! - YouTube
..




..
You said you predicted the crash back in 1999. You still haven't said which crash you are referring to, so it's hard for me to understand the point you are trying to make. So I'm going to make two predictions for the next 10 years:

1. The markets will go up

2. The markets will go down

I fully expect that both of my predictions will come true during the next 10 years. What does that tell you? It should tell you that predictions mean ****** all unless you provide a precise time frame. It's no use predicting a crash if the markets go up by another 40% before the crash happens.

I'm well aware of who Peter Schiff and Ron Paul are - they got some predictions right, but they got a lot of other predictions wrong. They both predicted that the dollar would be debased and that there would be hyperinflation for example, and that simply hasn't happened. Gold is on the way back down. It's not a question of me believing you or not, I said I predicted a house price crash back in 2003 so my predictions weren't that different to Schiff and Paul, and I also thought that there would be very high monetary inflation after the credit crunch but, like Schiff and Paul, I got that bit wrong.
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  #80 (permalink)  
Old 31st December 2013, 08:57 AM
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Anyone with the most superficial knowledge of the history of capitalism knows that it is predicated on cycles of boom and bust.
As for predicting the exact time, date and place where the next crash will occur...why bother? Unless you are mega-rich ( and if you were you wouldn't be posting on this Forum, you'd be wondering where to tell the captain to which fresh exotic port he should steer your luxury yacht) you really won't experience anything other than business as usual which is that said mega-rich get even richer, some of us are lucky enough to get the scraps off the table but the majority of working stiffs will carry on getting shafted.
As the French say, 'Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose'.
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