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Old 10th December 2019, 03:14 PM
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The key MRP method YouGov poll to predict continuency results will be published around 8 to 9 pm tonight Spain time.
Euro exchange rate market is likely to react significantly to this poll as it was the best predictor of 2017 result. Biggest move likely is if it predicts Hung parliament as markets currently have Boris majority and Brexit certainty factored in.
Hope that helps!

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Old 10th December 2019, 03:49 PM
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Deleted. Carry on.....

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Old 11th December 2019, 08:19 AM
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Results:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lling-suggests
Quote:
YouGov’s second and much-hyped constituency-by-constituency poll puts the Conservatives unchanged on 43% and Labour on 34%, up two points on its previous effort a fortnight before.

The result is that Boris Johnson’s notional majority has been cut from 68 to 28 as his party’s seat count falls by 20 to 339 and Labour’s improves by the same amount to 231. The SNP takes 41 and the Liberal Democrats 15.
This morning's exchange rate unchanged at £1 - €1.19.
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Old 11th December 2019, 08:21 AM
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Indeed as con majority still predicted as per factored into market predictions 🙂

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Old 11th December 2019, 01:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andyviola View Post
Indeed as con majority still predicted as per factored into market predictions 🙂
I thought of doing a bit of business but I think breaking 1,20 is on the cards. Possibly as much to do with EU instability as Boris. As you say a Tory win I think is factored in give or take a cent.

Interesting the WTO issues, and the US breaking the rules, has come along at this time. That could strengthen Boris's hand. He seems to be on a roll at the moment - not that he has had much opposition to write home about.

And obviously a 'bye bye' Trump might increase the turbulence. Exciting times for sure.

But which wine with turkey, and what to serve the vegans takes priority. Plus where to get the parsnips????

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Old 11th December 2019, 01:04 PM
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Haha yes good analysis ...i chucked 10k across as I really felt there would be a shock for Boris. Think markets say max of 1.25 if deal progresses well.

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Old 11th December 2019, 03:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nigele2 View Post
Plus where to get the parsnips????
Doesn't anyone in your area do a Gibraltar run? We take turns to go to Morrisons and fulfill each other's requirements for teabags, vintage cheddar, parsnips etc.

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Old 11th December 2019, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alcalaina View Post
Doesn't anyone in your area do a Gibraltar run? We take turns to go to Morrisons and fulfill each other's requirements for teabags, vintage cheddar, parsnips etc.
Alcalaina I live entirely with Spaniards and only know one brit who I wouldn't get that close to. And I'm not doing a 4 hour round trip for a few parsnips

Seriously I think El Corte in Cadiz will have some. And maybe some swede. I can do everything else. Seven plus two dogs this year

Hope you have a good one down in our southwest corner

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Old 11th December 2019, 04:29 PM
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I miss gold old fashioned uk high calorie chicken pies. I will have to take up baking as a hobby.

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Old 12th December 2019, 05:14 PM
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As the sterling/euro exchange rate is now down to €1.1789, is this indication that the markets DON'T think Boris Johnson is in line to get a workable majority?


Last edited by Lynn R; 12th December 2019 at 05:18 PM.
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