Which is worse...

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Old 4th May 2020, 09:19 AM
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Default Which is worse...

Economic damage could be worse without lockdown and social distancing, study finds

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Old 4th May 2020, 09:34 AM
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The answer is very easy. If I know that I am likely to die with the virus and no lockdown, tben I'm strongly in favour of lockdown. If I know I am immune from the virus then the ecomomy is vastly more important.


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Old 4th May 2020, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by DejW View Post
The answer is very easy. If I know that I am likely to die with the virus and no lockdown, tben I'm strongly in favour of lockdown. If I know I am immune from the virus then the ecomomy is vastly more important.
Well, yes, that is the common view. But, the article argues that the economic damage from no-lockdown, or too-short- of a lockdown could actually be worse than the damage caused by a (proper) lockdown. Which, if the theory is accurate, it means that in your second scenario you would still support a lockdown.

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Old 4th May 2020, 10:32 AM
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The answer is very easy. If I know that I am likely to die with the virus and no lockdown, tben I'm strongly in favour of lockdown. If I know I am immune from the virus then the ecomomy is vastly more important.


DejW
Even for seniors the risk of catching the virus, le alone dying from it, is actually very low especially with social distancing and other barriers, so what is your concept of "likely to die"?

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Old 4th May 2020, 10:56 AM
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I dunno - this article pretty well sums up the situation for me:
https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/202...stupid-column/

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Old 4th May 2020, 11:16 AM
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I'm becoming convinced that the different approaches will make remarkably little differences overall. The section of the population that this thing is going to kill... Are dead. All we're controlling is the when.

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Old 4th May 2020, 11:29 AM
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...The section of the population that this thing is going to kill... Are dead. All we're controlling is the when.
If avoiding (premature) deaths were the goal, I would agree. However, the real danger to the system is not the relatively small number of deaths, which disproportionately affect people no-longer contributing to the economy anyway. The real danger is the cost of caring for those who do not die but require extensive medical care. If those numbers grow too high, the workforce loses large numbers of people while they convalesce, the entire medical system collapses, and people, not just the old, start to die that might have survived. At this point, the political price might become enormous.

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Old 4th May 2020, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by berkinet View Post
If avoiding (premature) deaths were the goal, I would agree. However, the real danger to the system is not the relatively small number of deaths, which disproportionately affect people no-longer contributing to the economy anyway. The real danger is the cost of caring for those who do not die but require extensive medical care. If those numbers grow too high, the workforce loses large numbers of people while they convalesce, the entire medical system collapses, and people, not just the old, start to die that might have survived. At this point, the political price might become enormous.
The other thing is the number of frontline healthcare workers who are dying - and what would you expect when they are working with the disease in extremely difficult and even unsafe conditions. This is particularly so in the Grand Est around the Mulhouse area where healthcare has been in crisis the longest. Then there are all those patients with non Covid related serious and chronic conditions who had been avoiding seeking medical treatment but are now returning and many of them will require ICU/réanimation so the stresses on the health care system are far from over. It's hardly as if all this illness, death and failure of the health care system increases consumption, certainly not in a way that will genuinely enable the economy to rebound. Plus the risk of on again / off again lockdown, which would not only cause confusion but potentially extend and deepen the economic crisis rather than ameliorating it.

Still, in France we are yet to see how responsible the general public is, given the déconfinement is arguably fast and strong, even forceful (at least in comparison with some other countries).
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Old 4th May 2020, 12:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by berkinet View Post
If avoiding (premature) deaths were the goal, I would agree. However, the real danger to the system is not the relatively small number of deaths, which disproportionately affect people no-longer contributing to the economy anyway. The real danger is the cost of caring for those who do not die but require extensive medical care. If those numbers grow too high, the workforce loses large numbers of people while they convalesce, the entire medical system collapses, and people, not just the old, start to die that might have survived. At this point, the political price might become enormous.
Well this is it, we need to keep the infection rate at a level the authorities can deal with while also ensuring that sufficient people get it to create an immune (albeit temporarily so) population.

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Old 4th May 2020, 12:24 PM
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...we need to keep the infection rate at a level the authorities can deal with while also ensuring that sufficient people get it to create an immune (albeit temporarily so) population.
To achieve the so-called herd immunity you need to have somewhere between 30 and 95% of the herd be immune. (See this page). For highly infectious diseases, like covid-19, the threshold is around 80%.

In France, there are now 130 000+ confirmed cases of covid-19. Let's assume, with a wild guess, that for every known case, there are 10 unknown cases (asymptomatic of unreported). That is around 1,3 million people out of a population of 70 million - just under 2%. Herd immunity is not going to happen based on recovered individuals alone. Without a vaccine, it is not possible. And, even with a vaccine, it would be necessary to vaccinate somewhere between 35 and 50 million people in France alone.
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