"Brexit deepening inequalities among UK nationals in France" - Page 4

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"Brexit deepening inequalities among UK nationals in France" - Page 4


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  #31 (permalink)  
Old 17th January 2020, 10:16 AM
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B1 level is not really very high, SF.
It's the level expected of French pupils when they are 15 in the 1st year of lycée with probably only 4 or 5 years of (school) English. You are not expected to be fluent or perfect, just to be able to get the gist of a message and make yourself understood.
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  #32 (permalink)  
Old 17th January 2020, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by rynd2it View Post
100 out of 200,000? In depth? don't make me laugh.
Seriously, sourcing 100 people for an article is In Depth reporting.

Do you actually expect any news organization to interview 100,000 people for an article?

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  #33 (permalink)  
Old 17th January 2020, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Steve Foley View Post
So for me the barrier will be even higher. Still, it's up to France to set its own criteria and as long as I have my CDS I will be happy. It expires in Jan 2029 and I doubt I will see 76 years of age.
To be entirely honest here, my main motivation for taking French nationality was that my 10-year residence card was approaching its expiration date and it simply galled me to have to pay something over 300€ (at the time - don't know what it is now) to renew the card every 10 years.

That may be the big "shock to the system" for the Brits under Brexit - having to pay for their CDS rather than getting it issued for free, as I think has been the case up until now. But I don't think they have decided what to do yet about the transitional period regarding having to pay for the card or not.

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  #34 (permalink)  
Old 17th January 2020, 12:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rynd2it View Post
100 out of 200,000? In depth? don't make me laugh.
I remember reading an article that surveyed EU citizens across a number of the States on how they view the EU in their respective countries and their support for it, I think the survey sample consisted of around 30 000 respondents from a population of circa 500 million.

EU still receives ‘strong support’ from citizens, survey says:

https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu...ns-survey-says

If you convert the figures quoted by myself and you into percentages yours comes out at 0.005% and mine is a tad higher at 0.006%.

I'm guessing that's not in depth enough for you either, perhaps they should have asked all 500 million of them.

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  #35 (permalink)  
Old 17th January 2020, 12:53 PM
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OK - you're making me flash back on my statistics classes when I was in business school back in the Stone Age. It takes an amazingly small number of samples to make a survey "statistically valid" IIRC. So 100 may or may not be sufficient for a statistical survey. (That said, don't forget the old saw about "lies, damned lies and statistics.")

Still, the only "conclusion" they seemed to draw from this study was that "inequality" was deepening (what ever that means) among UK nationals in France. I'd dare to say that there is probably a similar level (or depth) of "inequality" among the foreign nationals of just about any country who are living in France - some are rich, some are poor. Some have planned carefully for stuff like exchange rate fluctuations and others are just winging it. Some speak the language and can manage reasonably well, others can't. Some piss and moan about everything that isn't like "back home" and others are thrilled to be away from the Old Country and are much happier here in France, despite the minor annoyances and aggravations.

"In-depth" or not, I just didn't see much point to the article. Yeah, things are gonna change when Brexit finally kicks in. Either you've made some provisions for those sorts of things, or you haven't. And honestly, it's probably just as likely that the same kinds of "earth-shattering" changes might have come about if you'd stayed at home - changes to the tax laws, currency re-valuations, pension changes, changes to the national health plan or to the availability of health services in a particular area, etc. etc.

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Old 17th January 2020, 01:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rynd2it View Post
100 out of 200,000? In depth? don't make me laugh.
From a statistical point of view, the population size is completely unimportant, it's the size of the sample, and how well the sample matches the characteristics of the overall population (e.g. age, gender, educational background etc. etc.).

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Old 17th January 2020, 03:21 PM
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And perhaps we should not forget the issues for Brits living in other EU countries (including of course Spain), as well as for EU nationals living in the UK - there have been lots of similar stories, both in the Guardian, in the French media and elsewhere.

But I have no doubt it is particularly problematic for some, perhaps many.

I agree with Pink Unicorn re sample size etc. You could certainly have a much larger sample size, but there is nothing to say it would be representative.

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  #38 (permalink)  
Old 17th January 2020, 04:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bevdeforges View Post
OK - you're making me flash back on my statistics classes when I was in business school back in the Stone Age. It takes an amazingly small number of samples to make a survey "statistically valid" IIRC. So 100 may or may not be sufficient for a statistical survey.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by PinkUnicorn View Post
From a statistical point of view, the population size is completely unimportant, it's the size of the sample, and how well the sample matches the characteristics of the overall population (e.g. age, gender, educational background etc. etc.).
Quote:
Originally Posted by EverHopeful View Post
...I agree with Pink Unicorn re sample size etc. You could certainly have a much larger sample size, but there is nothing to say it would be representative.
The actual sample size necessary to get a reasonable estimate of a large population is a random sampling of around 1000. Anything much less than that is only anecdotal.

However, it is becoming increasingly hard to get a true random sample. This is largely due to people's location identifiers (phone numbers and email addresses) becoming increasingly non-geographic. This was made obvious in the US 2016 elections in which the only pollsters that got it right had skewed their results to begin with. Just think how difficult it would be to find 1000 british expats in France, at random, who would respond to a survey.

But, as to the article in question. That was not a statistical study, it was good reporting. They went and interviewed a number of people to get, what they hope, is the pulse of a population. It is possible they were selective in whom they chose to interview and which interviews they chose to cite and publish. But, so far, I haven't heard anyone making those accusations, and personally, I don'r think that happened to any significant extent.
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  #39 (permalink)  
Old 17th January 2020, 05:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by berkinet View Post
The actual sample size necessary to get a reasonable estimate of a large population is a random sampling of around 1000. Anything much less than that is only anecdotal.
We are not talking here about a statistical analysis in which people are asked a set of questions. This is 100 interviews. Big difference.

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  #40 (permalink)  
Old 17th January 2020, 05:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by berkinet View Post
Anything much less than that is only anecdotal.
And... In reality... Given these strictures... Almost all news reporting is "anecdotal".

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