Differences after COVID 19 - Page 11

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Differences after COVID 19 - Page 11


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  #101 (permalink)  
Old 20th April 2020, 11:24 AM
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This approach has caused some friction apparently in Sweden, especially amongst the non-natives.

My wife's cousin was on assignment there for work (he normally works in Germany and was stationed in Sweden for a year), and he requested to be allowed to return to Germany. Luckily his company authorised his repatriation and he took his car and drove back as soon as he got the written confirmation because he didn't want to be there during the crisis, as many don't.

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Old 20th April 2020, 11:37 AM
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So many stats around difficult to make sense of them. The daily figures are like the Eurovision song contest, plus America of course. Probably non are accurate, none take into account the populations of countries either. Although it does seem that densely populated cities are taking the brunt.

Yet, if we take a standardised measure – deaths per million of the population – we find that it is in fact Belgium that has the highest rate of the major nations with 496, Spain second with 440 and Italy third with 385. France has 288 and the United Kingdom currently has a rate of 232.

The United States, by comparison, has had a death rate of 119 per million population, well below that of most major European nations.


There could be a lot more deaths because of people dying at home etc. there could be a lot less deaths because a high percentage would have died anyway. Who knows.


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Old 20th April 2020, 11:51 AM
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Just had a lengthy conversation with my Cousin who was in intensive care with the virus. Really made me more scared. She told me how she had to fight for every breath. Some of her fingers still have hard skin on them where she had gripped the side of the bed as she struggled to breathe. She says she feels ok now, no cough but a strange tiredness. She was put on antibiotics when recovered. Apparently she was told if having pnuemonia previously makes a difference to severity, she had it but 15 years ago. I had a pneumonia vaccine some years ago, wonder if it helps
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isobella View Post
Just had a lengthy conversation with my Cousin who was in intensive care with the virus. Really made me more scared. She told me how she had to fight for every breath. Some of her fingers still have hard skin on them where she had gripped the side of the bed as she struggled to breathe. She says she feels ok now, no cough but a strange tiredness. She was put on antibiotics when recovered. Apparently she was told if having pnuemonia previously makes a difference to severity, she had it but 15 years ago. I had a pneumonia vaccine some years ago, wonder if it helps
I'm glad she's getting better

This article explains how the virus attacks the body:

https://theconversation.com/what-the...-deadly-133856
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  #105 (permalink)  
Old 20th April 2020, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Isobella View Post
So many stats around difficult to make sense of them. The daily figures are like the Eurovision song contest, plus America of course. Probably non are accurate, none take into account the populations of countries either. Although it does seem that densely populated cities are taking the brunt.

Yet, if we take a standardised measure – deaths per million of the population – we find that it is in fact Belgium that has the highest rate of the major nations with 496, Spain second with 440 and Italy third with 385. France has 288 and the United Kingdom currently has a rate of 232.

The United States, by comparison, has had a death rate of 119 per million population, well below that of most major European nations.


There could be a lot more deaths because of people dying at home etc. there could be a lot less deaths because a high percentage would have died anyway. Who knows.
Exactly, however, how many deaths has CV19 contributed to without being reported because of chronic illness/disease so CV19 wasn't tested for. Like you say, who knows. I don't think the true toll of deaths due to this virus will ever be known.

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  #106 (permalink)  
Old 20th April 2020, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isobella View Post
Just had a lengthy conversation with my Cousin who was in intensive care with the virus. Really made me more scared. She told me how she had to fight for every breath. Some of her fingers still have hard skin on them where she had gripped the side of the bed as she struggled to breathe. She says she feels ok now, no cough but a strange tiredness. She was put on antibiotics when recovered. Apparently she was told if having pnuemonia previously makes a difference to severity, she had it but 15 years ago. I had a pneumonia vaccine some years ago, wonder if it helps
an ex colleague of mine was sent home yesterday, after breaking down following two weeks of 12 hour shifts in ICU, with minimum breaks in between. She is normally an anaesthetic nurse in theatres, and like myself, is used to losing patients on the table and post operatively, it’s one of the many emotions you learn to deal with, however, she has found these past weeks completely and utterly soul destroying, having seen patient after patient desperately trying to draw breath, intubating patients knowing many would not survive and watching the death count rise daily.

People can spout off as many statistics as they want, be critical of various government decisions, moan about how one country can walk and
Another can’t, how children are suffering under lockdown, all pales into insignificance when talking to those on the front line, the patients who have been fortunate to recover and the relatives of a staggering 16000 people who were alive no more than two months ago and are now dead.

Just to put those 16000 people lives into perspective, regardless of whether they were fit and healthy or had underlying health conditions.

Center court at Wimbledon holds just under 15.000 people


This means everyone in this picture is now dead
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  #107 (permalink)  
Old 20th April 2020, 12:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Megsmum View Post
an ex colleague of mine was sent home yesterday, after breaking down following two weeks of 12 hour shifts in ICU, with minimum breaks in between. She is normally an anaesthetic nurse in theatres, and like myself, is used to losing patients on the table and post operatively, it’s one of the many emotions you learn to deal with, however, she has found these past weeks completely and utterly soul destroying, having seen patient after patient desperately trying to draw breath, intubating patients knowing many would not survive and watching the death count rise daily.
I have a number of friends who are physicians, nurses, etc here in the US. They share similar stories of the incredible mental toll this pandemic is taking on them as a group. I've been trying to do what I can to support them; I have several 3D printers that I've been using to make PPE supplies and face mask relief clips (pic attached) that help keep them safe and comfortable. I cannot imagine what they are going through right now - an no amount of training can prepare them for the actualities of being in what is basically a wartime theater.
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  #108 (permalink)  
Old 8th May 2020, 06:31 AM
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Here's the first series that I've seen set in the pandemic. All filmed by the actors themselves and their families. You can see it on the ITV Hub. If in Spain all you need to do is put a British postcode
https://www.itv.com/hub/isolation-stories/10a0115
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Old 8th May 2020, 10:30 PM
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Country music adapts to the lockdown:


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Old 9th May 2020, 11:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isobella View Post
So many stats around difficult to make sense of them. The daily figures are like the Eurovision song contest, plus America of course. Probably non are accurate, none take into account the populations of countries either. Although it does seem that densely populated cities are taking the brunt.

Yet, if we take a standardised measure – deaths per million of the population – we find that it is in fact Belgium that has the highest rate of the major nations with 496, Spain second with 440 and Italy third with 385. France has 288 and the United Kingdom currently has a rate of 232.

The United States, by comparison, has had a death rate of 119 per million population, well below that of most major European nations.


There could be a lot more deaths because of people dying at home etc. there could be a lot less deaths because a high percentage would have died anyway. Who knows.
My career has revolved around statistical analysis, and is fair to say the various numbers coming out of countries are not directly comparable - some look at excess mortality in places like care homes and count those as Covid deaths (Belgium), some don't (most of US). Many other differences too.

Things like the mathematical model in the US that first reported 80,000 deaths, then went to 60,000, now 140,000 have me scratching my head. When they reduced the projected number to 60,000 it made no sense at all - it basically signaled their assumptions (and the output) weren't being challenged from a common-sense perspective. The model is clearly using a bottom-up process using infection rates and mortality data that don't stand up to logical scrutiny.

As a base check, I would tend to start at the deaths per million (as you mentioned and see where that leads us). At time of writing, Spain 566, Italy 503, UK 465, Belgium 740 for example, then try to understand why rates in different countries might be different (Belgium's count of excessdeaths in nursing homes for example). Also how demographics might play a part. Then understand that these numbers aren't final, and estimate a final count. You could pick a number like 750 for example and try logic why that might he high or low as an estimated 'final count', but New Yorks number of 1,376 per million suggests that absent mitigation, the number might be higher in places that open up too soon or do not put measures in place.

And 1.376 is not NY's final count of course, where does it top out ? No idea, but hopefully not as high as 2,000, but 1,600 to 1,700 feels optimistic. Now extend that to the whole US given the federal push to open up regardless, and for each 1,000 per million deaths, the US death count will be 328,000.

The Spains, Italys, Germanys, South Koreas etc will likely fare much better than that given all the efforts being made, but the US is a potential horror story if the federal government continues on its current recommendations path and many States follow suit .Trump is saying 'as many as 100,000' - if the US keeps it below 200,000 I will be very surprised.

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