what are the chances of infection?

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what are the chances of infection?


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Old 19th March 2020, 07:10 PM
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Default what are the chances of infection?

France population 2020: 65,000,000.25
Covid infections 19 March: 10,000.00
Current infection probability approx. 0.015%
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Old 19th March 2020, 08:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zipsister View Post
France population 2020: 65,000,000.25
Covid infections 19 March: 10,000.00
Current infection probability approx. 0.015%
Unless I am reading it wrong, this probablility assumes that all infectious persons are known as at 19th March.

Your line reading Covid infections should be Covid Diagnoses...

Stats from Italy and China show that by the time known infections are discovered, there are at least 10 times that number in the infectious-but-showing-no-symptoms phase.

So actual infections are around 100,000 minimum.

Infection rate seems to be about 2.5 - every ill person infects 2 and a half others on average.

No idea how to calculate the probability from that, but it's why we should all stay inside, even if we live in the sticks.

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Old 19th March 2020, 08:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zipsister View Post

France population 2020: 65,000,000.25
Covid infections 19 March: 10,000.00
Current infection probability approx. 0.015%

France population 2020: 65,000,000.25
KNOWN Covid infections 19 March: 10,000.00
Current infection probability approx. 0.015%

Estimated to be at least 10x known figure, but I take your point.

There were 3239 people killed on the roads in France in 2019, an average of just under 9 people each day.

If the current Order takes 90% of the traffic of our roads, then we should be reducing that average by 8 people a day.

That's 120 people alive at the end of the 15 days who would otherwise be dead.

(All things being equal. As Bev remarked, the quieter roads are lending themselves to the Boy Racers, but you get the drift).



Quote:
Originally Posted by eairicbloodaxe View Post

Your line reading Covid infections should be Covid Diagnoses...

Stats from Italy and China show that by the time known infections are discovered, there are at least 10 times that number in the infectious-but-showing-no-symptoms phase.

So actual infections are around 100,000 minimum.

You beat me to posting. I was interrupted by the phone.

.


Last edited by Clic Clac; 19th March 2020 at 08:48 PM. Reason: ps
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Old 20th March 2020, 10:53 AM
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Your chances of being infected are extremely high, though you may not even fall ill. You could have it now and not know it, and you could be spreading it. Main spread is via the hands. Estimated each person who is infected potentially contaminates FIVE other people, and each of those another FIVE. I won't go into the risk within your home and amongst those under your roof, because that is terrifying. I believe the very high risk is why Clic Clac took his son out of school early and why they are now doing their utmost to stick to themselves. They are actually being responsible. (Although here there is a helicopter that has been pulled from front-line action to fly over remote areas to detect movement, not least to protect what is likely the safest and most isolated food zone - full of small farmers, no industrial farming, etc. - as well as an artisanal fabric manufacturer and highly skilled employees whose high protection masks have been going backwards and forwards to get them absolutely right - the manufacturers are specialist in making cloths of many kinds, not medical suppliers or specialists in protecting against infection - could be in production early next week.)

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Old 20th March 2020, 01:06 PM
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Actually, I think one of the most important points in all of this is that no one actually knows the full extent of this virus. For whatever reason there seems to be a shortage of tests and testing materials so Europe hasn't been able to (or possibly just plain "hasn't") mounted a plan of universal testing. There apparently hasn't been a reliable test developed or readily available to determine who has had it and thus has the antibodies so as to be immune - whether for a finite period of time or indefinitely.

It's the unknown that is the really scary part here. But in the face of that, the best we can all do is to try to avoid contamination and the contamination of others.

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Old 20th March 2020, 01:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bevdeforges View Post
Actually, I think one of the most important points in all of this is that no one actually knows the full extent of this virus. For whatever reason there seems to be a shortage of tests and testing materials so Europe hasn't been able to (or possibly just plain "hasn't") mounted a plan of universal testing. There apparently hasn't been a reliable test developed or readily available to determine who has had it and thus has the antibodies so as to be immune - whether for a finite period of time or indefinitely.

It's the unknown that is the really scary part here. But in the face of that, the best we can all do is to try to avoid contamination and the contamination of others.
If by universal testing you mean testing everybody, I don't see how this can help. Someone who is negative today may be positive tomorrow (period of incubation unknown). Will the negative population be retested? How often?

Seems that this would be a waste of resources which are limited.
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Old 20th March 2020, 01:32 PM
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Now we have a mass exodus of the young from the big cities rushing to the small hamlets they desperately were trying to escape, and probably bringing the virus with them. Maybe if we remind them that the internet is dodgy in the countryside they may change their minds.

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Old 20th March 2020, 01:55 PM
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If by universal testing you mean testing everybody, I don't see how this can help. Someone who is negative today may be positive tomorrow (period of incubation unknown). Will the negative population be retested? How often?

Seems that this would be a waste of resources which are limited.
I don't see the value of universal testing either - but it does seem to be what some folks are clamoring for. (Not necessarily here on the forum, but in many places around the world where they are complaining that either "tests aren't available" or "not enough tests are being done.")

But given the knowledge that someone can be "infected" with the virus without showing any symptoms, we wouldn't even have any idea who to test if such a test exists.

At some point we have to trust (assume? hope?) that the people getting paid the big euros to make these kinds of decisions at least have a whole lot more information than any of us do. But there is a critical time element as well.

Reminds me of the Runaway Trolley Problem in some ways. If you don't know what I'm taking about, take a look here: https://www.turing.ac.uk/blog/ais-tr...roblem-problem

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Old 20th March 2020, 02:28 PM
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I guess Iíll bang on about this until I decide to stop.

ĎUniversalí testing is a red herring and is not suggested by anyone. The WHO says mass testing. What countries have been successful in this fight?

South Korea, 51.3 million people had tested 3692 per million people. It has recorded 8652 cases and 84 deaths. They did not delay. From tests they trace they identify.

France, has not started early. Population 67 million. 10,995 reported cases, 372 deaths. As of March 9, 11,895 tests - or 182 per million.

I have no idea as to tracing in France.

I think I can connect the dots.
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Old 20th March 2020, 03:23 PM
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Quote:
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...I have no idea as to tracing in France.

I think I can connect the dots.
And, that is exactly what statisticians are doing. Predict the unknown, with a sufficient degree of certainty, based on what we do know.

For example, German data may help us predict a total infected base from mortality data.
And based on incubation times, we can infer from present diagnosed cases what total cases might have been 10 days ago. I do not have a crystal ball, but I'll guess we start seeing some information like this very soon, if it isn't already out ther, at least in academic circles.

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