AUS Job Market - July2020 Update

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AUS Job Market - July2020 Update


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Old 14th August 2020, 03:17 AM
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Default AUS Job Market - July2020 Update

For April 2020 update:
https://www.expatforum.com/expats/au...rediction.html

For May 2020 update:
https://www.expatforum.com/expats/au...20-update.html

For June 2020 update:
https://www.expatforum.com/expats/au...20-update.html


SUMMARY:
Pre-COVID “normal” unemployment rate = 5%
April end unemployment rate = 6.2%
May end unemployment rate = 7.1%
June end unemployment rate = 7.4%
July end unemployment rate = 7.5%

Total jobs lost @ April end = 600,000
Total jobs lost @ May end = 838,000
Total jobs lost @ June end = 992,300
Total jobs lost @ July end = 1,009,400


DETAILS:
In a first time in history of Australia, more than one million people were out of work, available to work and actively looking for work during July.

Labour force figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show Australia’s jobless rate had increased from June to 7.5% by July end.

“For the first time there were more than one million people out of work, available to work and actively looking for work,” ABS spokesman Bjorn Jarvis said. “The number of unemployed people rose by nearly 16,000 between June and July.”

Some good news; effective unemployment rate dropped in July & now stands at 9.9%. This is due to the fact that full-time employment rose by 43,500 jobs and part-time employment by 71,200 jobs in July.
(effective unemployment rate takes into account not only those who are officially unemployed by also those who have left the labour force altogether as well as those on zero hours).

Nation’s official jobless rate is expected to peak at about 9.25% in the last quarter and remain at about 8.75% in 2020-21, according to Treasury forecasts.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned further outbreaks of coronavirus will threaten the country’s economic recovery, potentially pushing high levels of unemployment into 2021. In its monthly monetary policy statement, the central bank said the unknown timeline of when a COVID-19 vaccine might be produced would spur on uncertainty within the economy.

The RBA is expecting Australia’s gross domestic product to fall 3% for 2020 followed by an anticipated 6% rise 2021. But it noted further lockdowns in Victoria could fuel a longer road to economic recovery.

“Employment and hours worked are also expected to increase slightly over the second half of the year in most of the country,” the RBA said.
“However, the effects of the heightened activity restrictions in Victoria are likely to offset the pick-up in GDP growth in other parts of the economy in the September quarter.”

The central bank expects the economic setback caused by the Victorian wave will likely push the unemployment rate up to 10% by year end, a half percent upward revision from its initial estimates.


STATES STATISTICS
• Tasmania: 6.0% unemployment

• South Australia: 7.9% unemployment

• Queensland: 8.8% unemployment

• Victoria: 6.8% unemployment

• NSW: 7.2% unemployment

• Northern Territory: 7.5% unemployment

• Western Australia: 8.3% unemployment

• ACT: 4.6% unemployment


SO...
Goodluck to all young people, professionals, part time workers & especially to new arrivals!
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Old 14th August 2020, 07:14 AM
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Woow look at the state unemployment rates: it’s weird that the highest numbers are those that have least covid threat


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Old 14th August 2020, 11:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ENGR-189 View Post
For April 2020 update:
https://www.expatforum.com/expats/au...rediction.html

For May 2020 update:
https://www.expatforum.com/expats/au...20-update.html

For June 2020 update:
https://www.expatforum.com/expats/au...20-update.html


SUMMARY:
Pre-COVID “normal” unemployment rate = 5%
April end unemployment rate = 6.2%
May end unemployment rate = 7.1%
June end unemployment rate = 7.4%
July end unemployment rate = 7.5%

Total jobs lost @ April end = 600,000
Total jobs lost @ May end = 838,000
Total jobs lost @ June end = 992,300
Total jobs lost @ July end = 1,009,400


DETAILS:
In a first time in history of Australia, more than one million people were out of work, available to work and actively looking for work during July.

Labour force figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show Australia’s jobless rate had increased from June to 7.5% by July end.

“For the first time there were more than one million people out of work, available to work and actively looking for work,” ABS spokesman Bjorn Jarvis said. “The number of unemployed people rose by nearly 16,000 between June and July.”

Some good news; effective unemployment rate dropped in July & now stands at 9.9%. This is due to the fact that full-time employment rose by 43,500 jobs and part-time employment by 71,200 jobs in July.
(effective unemployment rate takes into account not only those who are officially unemployed by also those who have left the labour force altogether as well as those on zero hours).

Nation’s official jobless rate is expected to peak at about 9.25% in the last quarter and remain at about 8.75% in 2020-21, according to Treasury forecasts.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned further outbreaks of coronavirus will threaten the country’s economic recovery, potentially pushing high levels of unemployment into 2021. In its monthly monetary policy statement, the central bank said the unknown timeline of when a COVID-19 vaccine might be produced would spur on uncertainty within the economy.

The RBA is expecting Australia’s gross domestic product to fall 3% for 2020 followed by an anticipated 6% rise 2021. But it noted further lockdowns in Victoria could fuel a longer road to economic recovery.

“Employment and hours worked are also expected to increase slightly over the second half of the year in most of the country,” the RBA said.
“However, the effects of the heightened activity restrictions in Victoria are likely to offset the pick-up in GDP growth in other parts of the economy in the September quarter.”

The central bank expects the economic setback caused by the Victorian wave will likely push the unemployment rate up to 10% by year end, a half percent upward revision from its initial estimates.


STATES STATISTICS
• Tasmania: 6.0% unemployment

• South Australia: 7.9% unemployment

• Queensland: 8.8% unemployment

• Victoria: 6.8% unemployment

• NSW: 7.2% unemployment

• Northern Territory: 7.5% unemployment

• Western Australia: 8.3% unemployment

• ACT: 4.6% unemployment


SO...
Goodluck to all young people, professionals, part time workers & especially to new arrivals!
The employment rates are depressingly low. The only way to resume normality is to contain the damn virus till there is a tested and working vaccine (not sputnik), where OZ/NZ are unique positioned due to their geography.

The structural damage in the form of demand destruction will continue to be felt, however, we will be on the path to recovery!

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Old 14th August 2020, 12:41 PM
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Unemployment data from Govt doesn't capture the true state, due to following two important factors

-- Employee's on JobKeeper allowance are not considered as unemployed
-- Anyone who stopped being a full time employee and is forced to do part time due to Covid circumstances, doesn't show up on this data. Agree'd it's not a job loss, but surely a loss of income.

There is a rumour that actual unemployment is in double figures.
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Old 16th August 2020, 07:54 AM
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i believe there is still a better time after it, people will start living with the virus, and life will be back to new normal. there is no strategy to end this virus, it can only be restricted to clusters and smart lockdown is effective in this case, rather than lock down all. Following the SOPs and quarantine requirements the borders should be open allowing the economy to take breath of relief and business to flourish especially associated with the hospitality industry. Undoubtedly, it will take years to achieve the level that was BC, but leap towards normalization with stringent SOPs is a positive move towards recovery before it is too late.

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Old 16th August 2020, 10:25 AM
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Do you recommend moving to Melbourne by the end of this year or in the 1st quarter of 2021?

Although I've IED in Jan 2021, Homeaffairs have waived off for all PR visa holders until their visa expiry.
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Old 23rd August 2020, 02:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by farrukh.rashid View Post
Do you recommend moving to Melbourne by the end of this year or in the 1st quarter of 2021?

Although I've IED in Jan 2021, Homeaffairs have waived off for all PR visa holders until their visa expiry.
Hi Farrukh,
(been busy on site (essential worker) hence the delay)

My two cents worth: right now moving to Australia or anywhere for that matter, this answer should not be based on destination BUT on why/what/where one is departing from. In simple words, if life is good elsewhere then DON'T, earliest time to move to AUS should be from July 2021 (fluid situation).
Hope it helps & good luck!

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