Originally Posted by Chopera
I fully expect that both of my predictions will come true during the next 10 years. What does that tell you? It should tell you that predictions mean ****** all unless you provide a precise time frame. It's no use predicting a crash if the markets go up by another 40% before the crash happens.
The only relevance to any prediction of what the market might do is timing, timing and timing.
If you time it correctly you'll make money, if you don't time it correctly, you'll lose money.
As you rightly say, markets go up and down all the time (the traders and market makers almost rig it that way, it's how they make their money) because economies are cyclical. History tells us that, what goes up usually comes down and what comes down usually goes up. The real key is in predicting what will go up, what will come down and most importantly - when.
If I could accurately predict when interest rates will rise, I'd make a fortune, and whilst I have an idea (or loose prediction of when it will happen) I don't know exactly when. All I know is, they will rise at some point in the future.
Timing is everything.