Originally Posted by rahul199447
What about the new 491 regional visa, aren't they going to invite anyone via that route as well or the existing 489 visa till November?
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Even with 491 visa, there are only 14,000 places for skilled independent. Since the competition in 189 is so fierce and so many people waiting to get invite for the last 4 months, 189 will be taken by 85/90 pointers. A lot of the 491 will go to 85/90 pointers also as they will apply for both visa as it always happens as a back up (they may move to 189 once that one comes also but once visa is issued, it is counted and hence DoHA is not going to reissue visa again, so even less than what it is). Very few will thus be left for 75 pointers to have any chance. And don't forget 14K is basically 8K or so after counting spouses and children. So, 1200/month invite number is what we will be looking at this year.
From next years it will be 8000/12 = 750/month so even worse.
Lets not forget, 491 is basically the visa for 75 pointers and higher who can't get 189. It's just 189 getting split and reduced from 42K to 18+14=32K now. So, whatever people got last year, it will even be less. And since it's starting in Nov, the queue will be so huge, I don't see any movement for 75 pointers at all. Maybe next year, but then the points requirement will go high since so many people waiting again and less invite numbers.
Till the supply is same or more than demand, points will not come down or stay same at all. And it ain't happening. Hence, people at 75 points unless you are single and have possibility to increase points, have a different approach like 190 or employer sponsored or different country.