Euro / Pound currency prediction thread

[SunnySpain]

Good news for all expats, the exchange rate is now 1.13 Euros to the Pound.

Is this the start of the recovery I wonder

[jojo]

Originally Posted by SunnySpain

Good news for all expats, the exchange rate is now 1.13 Euros to the Pound.

Is this the start of the recovery I wonder

I´ve been watching it closely this last week and yes, it appears to be creeping up! I reckon that it will slowly carry on creeping until "something" happens ie UK budget, enterest rate reviews... and then....... well I guess it depends on what happens, it´ll either shoot up or plummet, but I´m confident that it´ll shoot up!!!!?? I´m blonde tho and havent got much of a clue really!? I think that the UK is gonna have to start to put the interest rate back up now tho, the time is right! and that should strengthen the pound!

Jo

[SunnySpain]

Originally Posted by jojo

I think that the UK is gonna have to start to put the interest rate back up now tho, the time is right! and that should strengthen the pound!

Jo

Hiya Jojo,

Yes, I think you may well be right on that one.

From an expat point of view, I think its important the Pound re-gains its strength
over the Euro, not only for us (current expats), but also for future expats and quite possibly more importantly for the "economy of Spain" itself - as without the influx of expats its hard to see how the current economic climate can improve.

In my view, Spain needs more expats to come over and buy up much of the empty and un-finished properties that are currently surplus to requirements
in order for the construction industry to start moving again (in the South).

Its just a hunch, but I can see 1.20 Euros to the Pound by the end of May )

Dave - its good to talk

[Xose]

The bad news is that it was around 1.15 less than two months ago. Then I needed to do a transfer and BINGO, 1.07 before you know it

I think the ECB's been messing around not lowering its rates long enough, the UK has no more to lower and most of the bad news from the UK is out, whilst the Eurozone has yet to release more bad news - so signs are good.

Also, the likes of Tesco and British Airways are back on the BUY ratings in the stock market, so a few more UK company ratings like this will do the Pound the world of good. Not to mention some really good first quarter results from the US, where a lot of UK money is invested.

However, more bad news also is that the past week or two has seen silly Bull Market levels (some Spanish banks making 50% on their share price in two weeks) so a correction is seen as inevitable. Some say that correction might be frightening following the not too old negative market attitude and this could fuel a fear drop of as much as 30%. If this happens in Euroland and not on the Footsie, that could be good for the Pound... but that's a big if!

Another much bigger worry is, when the pound eventually does get back to 1.3 plus €, and the Crisis is seen as almost over (a while off yet!) we may well need the extra cash as the new danger is inflation at silly levels to pay for all the cash that's been printed and thrown around to salvage this mess.

Let's hope Mr Brown and Mr Trichet can keep a cool head and maintain the need for people to have cash to spend (just the right amount and not via loans) to keep the system afloat - this way, we may stand a chance at a cool recovery with less inflation and not a big bang recovery with massive inflation to follow.

I'm off to fill the car up and see what the petrol price is today, whilst waiting to see if the Spanish government are going to do anything about the price fixing by the petrol co's - they've been on about it long enough

[jojo]

Originally Posted by SunnySpain

Hiya Jojo,

Yes, I think you may well be right on that one.

From an expat point of view, I think its important the Pound re-gains its strength
over the Euro, not only for us (current expats), but also for future expats and quite possibly more importantly for the "economy of Spain" itself - as without the influx of expats its hard to see how the current economic climate can improve.

In my view, Spain needs more expats to come over and buy up much of the empty and un-finished properties that are currently surplus to requirements
in order for the construction industry to start moving again (in the South).

Its just a hunch, but I can see 1.20 Euros to the Pound by the end of May )

Dave - its good to talk

I know, its very easy to see it from us "expats" viewpoint and I often wonder whether my views are just based on my wishful thinking. The view from the UK of course is that while the pound is fairly weak, it makes UK exports stronger on the world market - that said, the UK doesnt have any major export industries anymore, but there are lots and lots of smaller ones that are "cashing in" on the current situation (my husband for one!!).

But to get the world back on course, the pound needs to be stronger, it needs the investment.

Its almost like a big "bounce". Drop the pound and take it to the bottom to let it bounce back naturally!????

Jo - yes it is good to talk

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Xose

I'm off to fill the car up and see what the petrol price is today, whilst waiting to see if the Spanish government are going to do anything about the price fixing by the petrol co's - they've been on about it long enough

That annoys me, the price of crude is down to (recent) record lows, yet petrol seems to be creeping up. Two weeks ago it was 0.82€ and now its 0.87€... why????

Jo

[SunnySpain]

Originally Posted by jojo

That annoys me, the price of crude is down to (recent) record lows, yet petrol seems to be creeping up. Two weeks ago it was 0.82€ and now its 0.87€... why????

Jo

Yes, it is annoying, but it was 1.37 Euros a litre not that long ago, but for sure there's something not quite right or possibly corrupt shall we say

[Tallulah]

Originally Posted by Xose

Also, the likes of Tesco and British Airways are back on the BUY ratings in the stock market, so a few more UK company ratings like this will do the Pound the world of good. Not to mention some really good first quarter results from the US, where a lot of UK money is invested.

Xose,

I notice that the much awaited results of this morning have just been posted on Citigroup and General Electric in the US and both have come in above expectations. Could well be we're seeing the start of recovery in the US then. Unfortunately, even the Spanish powers that be have made noises about 2012 for Spain for recovery, so we may have to bide our time a little longer here, and any "up's" as you say may well be dangerous for jumping in and seeing it as the start of a recovery just yet. I think the term used by Sky Finance pundits for these (false) up's is "mugs bait" ?!?!

Regards,
Tallulah.x

[jojo]

I cant help feeling tho that every time the pound looks like its going up against the euro, the governemtn and media conspire to produce some bad news which knocks it back down again. Its happened sooooo many times recently, I´m just waiting to see if they do it again!!

Jo

[Xose]

Originally Posted by My_Name_is_Tallulah

Xose,

I notice that the much awaited results of this morning have just been posted on Citigroup and General Electric in the US and both have come in above expectations. Could well be we're seeing the start of recovery in the US then. Unfortunately, even the Spanish powers that be have made noises about 2012 for Spain for recovery, so we may have to bide our time a little longer here, and any "up's" as you say may well be dangerous for jumping in and seeing it as the start of a recovery just yet. I think the term used by Sky Finance pundits for these (false) up's is "mugs bait" ?!?!

Regards,
Tallulah.x

Boas nena
Impressive. Must be one hell of a course this Certified and Chartered Housewive "licenciatura" of yours. I'm well impressed.

Yes, you're 100% right. The number of day traders that have been burnt or bankrupt as a result of these goings on is huge. So much so that they even banned short trading for a while, you might have heard a few weeks back the stops were now off, US and Europe, and short traders can start to ruin companies again. Not the idea of short trading of course but I've seen some Agency activity that you would not believe. Poor old CNMV in Spain doesn't know where to start - but they are useless and couldn't regulate a chimp tea party much less the stock exchange in Spain - so yes, definetely stay off the Ibex sauce for quite a while yet unless you really know your onions and have a lot of money to stay dormant for a few years.

Salud y Pasta,
Xose