Can We Afford To Live In Spain?

[Suenneil]

Originally Posted by mike kelly

between now and the end of 2010 house prices will fall by 20%? That seems very high. I really would like to know the source of this prediction

Hi Mike

I think it has been quoted in many press articles here in Spain that a drop of 20% on average house prices would occur ........ and in some areas it already has! Although one has to ask the question was the original price severely over inflated in the first place!

As an example the apartment we rent direct from a developer was marketed at 450k euros 18 months ago (and people did buy them!) ..... and the last few remaining 3 beds are now marketed at 350k ..... which is more than a 20% reduction......

Up and down the coast there are plenty of developers offering similar "discounts" which are well within the 20% "fall" .

But again this isnt going to be the same everywhere is it ? So what the final average % drop will be across Spain is anyones guess I suppose.

Sue

[mrypg9]

Originally Posted by Tallulah

Exactly M. But I wouldn't get too wound up by it - it was an old post and hopefully the forum is attracting a more educated poster these days. We live in hope, anyway!

Tallulah.x

Thanks, T. You put it in perspective and I should be tranquil, I'm in Spain!
But isn't it odd, we refer to ourselves as 'expats' buit anyone who comes to live in the UK is an immigrant?

[mike kelly]

Originally Posted by Suenneil

Hi Mike

I think it has been quoted in many press articles here in Spain that a drop of 20% on average house prices would occur ........ and in some areas it already has! Although one has to ask the question was the original price severely over inflated in the first place!

As an example the apartment we rent direct from a developer was marketed at 450k euros 18 months ago (and people did buy them!) ..... and the last few remaining 3 beds are now marketed at 350k ..... which is more than a 20% reduction......

Up and down the coast there are plenty of developers offering similar "discounts" which are well within the 20% "fall" .

But again this isnt going to be the same everywhere is it ? So what the final average % drop will be across Spain is anyones guess I suppose.

Sue

yes, the last 2 years have seen substantial price reductions, especially in coastal areas. But I do question that that from now these already reduced prices will fall by another 20%. The press usually give year on year %s, I don't recall any prediction of a further 20% fall by the end of 2010.

[Suenneil]

Originally Posted by mike kelly

yes, the last 2 years have seen substantial price reductions, especially in coastal areas. But I do question that that from now these already reduced prices will fall by another 20%. The press usually give year on year %s, I don't recall any prediction of a further 20% fall by the end of 2010.

Hi Mike

I couldnt remember the articles but have just googled it and got a lot of press reports quoting similar figures and timeframes.

Here is one from the Telegraph.

Sue

Spanish house prices to drop a further 20 per cent - Telegraph

[xabiachica]

Originally Posted by mike kelly

yes, the last 2 years have seen substantial price reductions, especially in coastal areas. But I do question that that from now these already reduced prices will fall by another 20%. The press usually give year on year %s, I don't recall any prediction of a further 20% fall by the end of 2010.

which would mean the prediction Jo mentioned was on the right track

she made that post over a year ago - in June 2008

[Suenneil]

Originally Posted by xabiachica

which would mean the prediction Jo mentioned was on the right track

she made that post over a year ago - in June 2008

Well the Telegraph article I think is dated February this year .... so they were projecting a 20% drop from then on .... so worse than originally thought ? Although I suppose things can change so quickly in the markets that it may be they dont drop as much as that in the end ?

Watch this space

[Claire la richarde]

Originally Posted by Suenneil

Well the Telegraph article I think is dated February this year .... so they were projecting a 20% drop from then on .... so worse than originally thought ? Although I suppose things can change so quickly in the markets that it may be they dont drop as much as that in the end ?

Watch this space

This is dated July 2009, from Reuters

MADRID, July 15 (Reuters) - Spanish house prices fell 8.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, accelerating from a revised 6.5 percent fall in the first quarter, the Housing Ministry said on Wednesday.

That was the fastest decline since records began in 1995. However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis the decline slowed to 1.9 percent from 3 percent in the first quarter.

A Reuters housing poll of Spanish and foreign-based economists found that on average prices were expected to fall 32 percent from their 2007 peak.

Wednesday's data compares with a 10.1 percent year on year fall in June according to private surveyors Tinsa, compared to a 9.8 percent fall in May.

[Suenneil]

Originally Posted by Claire la richarde

This is dated July 2009, from Reuters

MADRID, July 15 (Reuters) - Spanish house prices fell 8.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, accelerating from a revised 6.5 percent fall in the first quarter, the Housing Ministry said on Wednesday.

That was the fastest decline since records began in 1995. However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis the decline slowed to 1.9 percent from 3 percent in the first quarter.

A Reuters housing poll of Spanish and foreign-based economists found that on average prices were expected to fall 32 percent from their 2007 peak.

Wednesday's data compares with a 10.1 percent year on year fall in June according to private surveyors Tinsa, compared to a 9.8 percent fall in May.

Thanks for this ... although it doesnt make happy reading does it for some people - although for others it will bring a huge smile to their faces ... there are always winners and losers unfortunately.

Sue

[jojo]

I read somewhere that actually the spanish are really pleased that property prices are falling, it means their youngsters can at last get a foothold on the property ladder. As far as they're concerned it was only ever the brits and others who came over and created a crazy and artificial price rise, fuelled by some of the "expat" estate agencies!! Of course the other side of the coin is that these same Brits also brought prosperity to their country... that and joining the EU!

Jo xxx

[Suenneil]

Originally Posted by jojo

I read somewhere that actually the spanish are really pleased that property prices are falling, it means their youngsters can at last get a foothold on the property ladder. As far as they're concerned it was only ever the brits and others who came over and created a crazy and artificial price rise, fuelled by some of the "expat" estate agencies!! Of course the other side of the coin is that these same Brits also brought prosperity to their country... that and joining the EU!

Jo xxx

Hi Jo

I think there will be a "split" camp on this one .... Im sure its true that the Spanish will be pleased of the fall in prices as it means youngsters / first time buyers have a much better chance of getting on the property ladder (Im sure a lot of people in the UK would hope for the same ) ..... and I think I also read something similar to what you mentioned here.

On the other side of the coin are the Spaniards themselves who fed into the hyped up prices and played their own part in keeping prices high....along with the real estate companies.

People will also complain about the fall if they already own (where they paid way over the odds ... or at least last years prices!) .... but unless you are actually wanting to sell now - the loss "on paper" doesnt mean a lot at the moment, and once prices have stabilised Im sure they will rise again over the years at a more "natural" rate.

I seriously wish I was in a position to buy at the moment .... I would certainly be looking around for something ...