SA Haters

[Darko]

Originally Posted by Halo

1. Want to put some money on that not being the case by the end of the year? Look in 1983 it was R2=£1 (say no more)
2. Correct, when one removes a virus, why replace it with another?
3. And it will only get worse when people jockey for the $$ when the money tap dries up
4. Great news... Those poor technicians. It takes 7-12 years to build power stations.... you already load shed - Please do some research. Its a slow process and SA still have many skilled people who live there which prolongs the inevitable.
5. I would beg to differ, many who leave (plumbers/carpet fitters/electricians) who I know in Australia could not afford this in SA.
6. When you boss has IQ of 75 it really makes life rewarding.

Concerning is an understatement of note.

1. LOL!! hahahaha. I took a similar bet with someone just like you that the rand would not hit 20:1 (30:1 was even suggested) by end of 2008. Guess who won! So what is your prediction for end of 2009? Not fact...but prediction. Why didn't you emigrate in 1981 when it should've become clear at that stage to someone as insightful as you already how the ZAR would worsen? LOL!!!
2. You still avoid the facts huh! I can see you're a youngster, and you were probably not aware of the fact that moving funds is a legacy policy, so i forgive you. I guess that you wouldn't even realise that this very policy you dislike, saved our skins big time in SA.
3. The $$ wont be the currency of choice for much longer.
4. So we load shed. Wow!! hasn't affected me in the least. ..."prolongs the inevitable...". What is the "inevitable"? care to elaborate on this prediction? Not fact, but "prediction".
5. Well then we can hardly say that the cream of the crop left SA....for goodness sake!!
6. I wouldn't know, but you probably speak from experience.

[Halo]

Originally Posted by Darko

1. LOL!! hahahaha. I took a similar bet with someone just like you that the rand would not hit 20:1 (30:1 was even suggested) by end of 2008. Guess who won! So what is your prediction for end of 2009? Not fact...but prediction. Why didn't you emigrate in 1981 when it should've become clear at that stage to someone as insightful as you already how the ZAR would worsen? LOL!!!
2. You still avoid the facts huh! I can see you're a youngster, and you were probably not aware of the fact that moving funds is a legacy policy, so i forgive you. I guess that you wouldn't even realise that this very policy you dislike, saved our skins big time in SA.
3. The $$ wont be the currency of choice for much longer.
4. So we load shed. Wow!! hasn't affected me in the least. ..."prolongs the inevitable...". What is the "inevitable"? care to elaborate on this prediction? Not fact, but "prediction".
5. Well then we can hardly say that the cream of the crop left SA....for goodness sake!!
6. I wouldn't know, but you probably speak from experience.

1. 15 - Its where the R/£ should be currently. I was only 9 so its was a little difficult.
2. That's what I said... NATS ANC two sides of the same coin. I think it is you who misunderstood.
3. Perhaps it will be the Yen or the Euro.... $=Money not a particular currency.
4. I'm alright Jack attitude - You fit into SA well. Its a slow process -> 10-20 years to emulate Nigeria/Kenya.
5. I never said that.
6. Only from what I hear from people that
a. Still live there
b. Are now here or back at home in the UK

[Darko]

Originally Posted by Halo

1. 15 - Its where the R/£ should be currently. I was only 9 so its was a little difficult.
2. Thats what I said... NATS ANC who sides of the same coin. I think it is you who mis-understood.
3. Perhaps it will be the Yen or the Euro.... $=Money not a particular currency.
4. I'm alright Jack attitude - You fit into SA well. Its a slow process -> 10-20 years to emulate Nigerian/Kenyan.
5. I never said that.
6.

1. What model was used in determining "15"? I can suggest a few for you to use, but they will yield a lower ratio. I would be interested in knowing how you calculated this. Seriously.
2. That still doesn't explain why it's a push factor. Pls explain why millions upon millions would want to emigrate because of this?
3. ok
4. 10-20 yrs....you should've covered yourself. if i were you i would've said 10-200 yrs. That way you could never be proven wrong.
5. Well then no loss to SA really.

[Halo]

Originally Posted by Darko

1. What model was used in determining "15"? I can suggest a few for you to use, but they will yield a lower ratio. I would be interested in knowing how you calculated this. Seriously.
2. That still doesn't explain why it's a push factor. Pls explain why millions upon millions would want to emigrate because of this?
3. ok
4. 10-20 yrs....you should've covered yourself. if i were you i would've said 10-200 yrs. That way you could never be proven wrong.
5. Well then no loss to SA really.

1. Value of commodities...... Its the amount that actually benefits SA due to foreign purchases/manufacture etc - 15-1 does not = bad.
2. Millions and Millions can't leave or don't know any better.
3. -
4. Don't need to - I already have... left early ninties and never looked back - The deterioration is for all to see but due to SA's natural resources and skilled labour force it will be slow.
5. Its always a loss.

I have children - GB,OZ,Canada,USA,Europe are just better options.

[Daxk]

Actually Darko, how do you live without predictions?

I look at all the facts to hand, historical and current and then predict constantly what my turnover will be in a month,three months a year, 5 years etc...
I have to take into account socio economics, material supply and demand and a whole host of other factors
I've been doing it for about 40 years, sofar pretty successfully.
I do the same thing in my personal life too, as to wether my health will last the period of the mortgage, to go for fixed or variable, as to whatweather will be likely for our Holiday etc..

SA has a 50/50 chance..
It could go either way, and I sincerely hope it goes the right way as it would be a pity to see a lifeswork destroyed by a failed woodworker.

One of the predictions you castigated about was the Civil War in 94,

How much do you actually know about that period?
Specifically the two major factions in the ANC at that time?

[Darko]

Originally Posted by Daxk

Actually Darko, how do you live without predictions?

I look at all the facts to hand, historical and current and then predict constantly what my turnover will be in a month,three months a year, 5 years etc...
I have to take into account socio economics, material supply and demand and a whole host of other factors
I've been doing it for about 40 years, sofar pretty successfully.
I do the same thing in my personal life too, as to wether my health will last the period of the mortgage, to go for fixed or variable, as to whatweather will be likely for our Holiday etc..

SA has a 50/50 chance..
It could go either way, and I sincerely hope it goes the right way as it would be a pity to see a lifeswork destroyed by a failed woodworker.

One of the predictions you castigated about was the Civil War in 94,

How much do you actually know about that period?
Specifically the two major factions in the ANC at that time?

Daxk, you're actually right. Predictions / personal expectations based on a best guess must definitely play a part. And I think you're right on the money again regarding the 50/50 chance that SA has.

You bring business / your personal business in as a comparison - fair point again. But predictions in business "should" usually be based on factors which affect your business - a lot of the time, the direction of which, is normally within your control as a business owner. There is also an element of external factors which will affect your business directly / indirectly which are outside your control, for sure. But remember, when making business forecasts (and say you're in the electronics industry in SA) you will not forecast your business success / failure based on the success / failure in the Brazilian coffee indiustry. I liken this to people's predictions of SA's failure based on past failures in Zambia / Malawi etc.

So yes, predictions must be made - but reasonably so.

Furthermore, you seem very intelligent and experienced (life and business) and whilst you have said that you have been successful at your business forecasts, how successful have some "SA haters" been at predicting the doom of SA? Not so well from some predictions I have read: Firstly, the civil war in 94 never quite transpired (still hasn't); we've hosted successful sporting events; infrastrucure (contrary to popular belief) is being heavily upgraded; We DID receive the nod from FIFA for the SWC2010; We are currently hosting a succesful IPL; The Rand did NOT reach 30 or even 20 to 1 against the GBP; we had a bloodless election this year etc etc etc. To me the "SA hater" is the one who desperately waits for one of his apocalyptic predictions to come true, and thus far, nothing.

So whilst your predictions / forecasts in business have been on the money, can you say the same about your / rather, the "SA Haters" predictions about SA? When you get bombarded by apocalyptic predictions about SA from "SA haters" - and these predictions never transpire - then how seriously should we take them? It's tiresome - and then the "SA Hater" gets VERY surprised when labelled as such. I think their surprise, surprises me more.

I also sincerely hope that SA swings to the positive side of the 50/50. I certainly know it wont be easy.

I know not as much as you do about the 1994 period re the factions.

Bear in mind, I'd like to think that I'm not an idiot and that I could leave whenever I wanted to. My personal opinion is that right now, SA is VERY liveable and my lifestyle has improved. I could however not tell you whether I would feel the same way had I not had most of my friends and family here.

[Halo]

At lease you have a British PP and can leave -> Many can't

[Daxk]

Originally Posted by Darko

) you will not forecast your business success / failure based on the success / failure in the Brazilian coffee indiustry. I liken this to people's predictions of SA's failure based on past failures in Zambia / Malawi etc.

, how successful have some "SA haters" been at predicting the doom of SA? Not so well from some predictions I have read: Firstly, the civil war in 94 never quite transpired (still hasn't); we've hosted successful sporting events; infrastrucure (contrary to popular belief) is being heavily upgraded; We DID receive the nod from FIFA for the SWC2010; We are currently hosting a succesful IPL; The Rand did NOT reach 30 or even 20 to 1 against the GBP; we had a bloodless election this year etc etc etc. To me the "SA hater" is the one who desperately waits for one of his apocalyptic predictions to come true, and thus far, nothing.

.

Darko, As you dont like essays I reduced your quote to the bits i'd like to answer.

If I were in the Coffee growing business and growing a similar type of Bean as , say, Brazil. and the fertiliser they used over time stunted their crop and killed off
their plants ,and my Farm manager started using the same fertiliser in SA, could I predict something?

I admit, not many predictions have come true.
but lets take some close calls that I have personal knowledge of.

If the 6 Generals in the SADF had not backed down when the Citizen Force Generals refused to back their threat of a Miltary Coup we would have had a white on white conflict.
Do some research.

The Hani assasination plan was reported to Int by an informer who passed it on to the "exiles" group who chose to ignore it as it removed a very powerful Rival and more importantly destroyed any bargaining advantage the "White" Forces had.
The Far right Afrikaner Groups were virtually on lockdown during those 48 hours.

The ANC were split into two factions, the "Exiles" and the Operations group known as the "Vula" group.
The Vula Group stockpiled arms and ammunition that was brought in through Mocambique to Swaziland, the AK47's came from one particular factory in China and are easily recognisable as the Stamp forge had some damage and every AK that came out during only that manufacturing period had a nick in the casing.
Members of Vula were JZ and Robert McBride who supervised the siting of the arms caches.
The "Exiles" (Govan, Joel, Kgalema )realised that the Vula group was making a power play were planning a Military strike.
They got the Nats to lock them up.
Do some research.

As an aside,one of the AK 47's removed from Macbrides Boot carried the famous nick mark and was pristine, brand new, as if it had never been used and just come out of the Box after the accident in 2006.

The £ at 30:1?
You too are an intelligent man is there no incident in SA that could panic the financial markets? or

No Foreign Government or Business group that could force a shortsell currency fluctuation?
I distinctly recall the Rand bouncing to 19:1 in a week not too long ago,(I thought 21 but the Sauber only shows 19)

A peaceful election? yep! amazed! the last time someone challenged the ANC there were bodies littering KZN and Gauteng,
The IFP and ANC a huge number, the stats are available.
This time round there was the same type of bellicose rhetoric spouted.

Agreed, not all predictions will come to pass, but I also switched my computer off at 23.59 31/12/99, just in case.
And I did buy more tinned food than usual and condensed milk and some parafin lamps in 94, just in case.
And I do carry a first aid case in my car, just in case
because once in a while a prediction comes true.
and I'm a Boy Scout, I like being prepared.



.

[Darko]

Originally Posted by Daxk

Darko, As you dont like essays I reduced your quote to the bits i'd like to answer.

If I were in the Coffee growing business and growing a similar type of Bean as , say, Brazil. and the fertiliser they used over time stunted their crop and killed off
their plants ,and my Farm manager started using the same fertiliser in SA, could I predict something?

I admit, not many predictions have come true.
but lets take some close calls that I have personal knowledge of.

If the 6 Generals in the SADF had not backed down when the Citizen Force Generals refused to back their threat of a Miltary Coup we would have had a white on white conflict.
Do some research.

The Hani assasination plan was reported to Int by an informer who passed it on to the "exiles" group who chose to ignore it as it removed a very powerful Rival and more importantly destroyed any bargaining advantage the "White" Forces had.
The Far right Afrikaner Groups were virtually on lockdown during those 48 hours.

The ANC were split into two factions, the "Exiles" and the Operations group known as the "Vula" group.
The Vula Group stockpiled arms and ammunition that was brought in through Mocambique to Swaziland, the AK47's came from one particular factory in China and are easily recognisable as the Stamp forge had some damage and every AK that came out during only that manufacturing period had a nick in the casing.
Members of Vula were JZ and Robert McBride who supervised the siting of the arms caches.
The "Exiles" (Govan, Joel, Kgalema )realised that the Vula group was making a power play were planning a Military strike.
They got the Nats to lock them up.
Do some research.

As an aside,one of the AK 47's removed from Macbrides Boot carried the famous nick mark and was pristine, brand new, as if it had never been used and just come out of the Box after the accident in 2006.

The £ at 30:1?
You too are an intelligent man is there no incident in SA that could panic the financial markets? or

No Foreign Government or Business group that could force a shortsell currency fluctuation?
I distinctly recall the Rand bouncing to 19:1 in a week not too long ago,(I thought 21 but the Sauber only shows 19)

A peaceful election? yep! amazed! the last time someone challenged the ANC there were bodies littering KZN and Gauteng,
The IFP and ANC a huge number, the stats are available.
This time round there was the same type of bellicose rhetoric spouted.

Agreed, not all predictions will come to pass, but I also switched my computer off at 23.59 31/12/99, just in case.
And I did buy more tinned food than usual and condensed milk and some parafin lamps in 94, just in case.
And I do carry a first aid case in my car, just in case
because once in a while a prediction comes true.
and I'm a Boy Scout, I like being prepared.



.

Nice example on the farming. I though we were talking about SA though?

The fact remains that most of the apocalyptic predictions have amounted to nothing.

Regarding being a boy scout and being prepared - have you collected tinned foods and stored them in your nuclear fallout bunker yet? You never know if Russias or Iran's arsenal could get past Trident.

You know...just in case.

[Daxk]

"Regarding being a boy scout and being prepared - have you collected tinned foods and stored them in your nuclear fallout bunker yet? You never know if Russias or Iran's arsenal could get past Trident.

You know...just in case. "

Funny you should ask that....