Who cares about the recent Mexican elections?

[stilltraveling]

Originally Posted by CHerr

No, that Peña Nieto would take a softer stance than Calderon did.

Ah, that remains to be seen. Although, after six years of taking out all the old guys that used to keep that business civil, I'm not sure what turning the other cheek can accomplish. The guys in charge now are all psychopaths.

I don't think we get to turn the clock back on this one. It's time to start talking about ending prohibition.

[edgeee]

Originally Posted by stilltraveling

Ah, that remains to be seen. Although, after six years of taking out all the old guys that used to keep that business civil, I'm not sure what turning the other cheek can accomplish. The guys in charge now are all psychopaths.

I don't think we get to turn the clock back on this one. It's time to start talking about ending prohibition.

ST, i presume you mean ending the ridiculous 'war on drugs' being waged by the USA.
if so, i agree.
morality can not be legislated, especially when our congress is mostly hypocrites and incompetents.
where do they find these guys?

as for the Mexican elections, even from my far-off perch, i can see that the new will still be a variation of what went before. it always is.
and it's impossible to truly judge whether the right choices were made, because 'what-if' is a game that never ends.
i just hope the new honchos have a little more heart than the last bunch.

[stilltraveling]

Originally Posted by edgeee

i just hope the new honchos have a little more heart than the last bunch.

I'd prefer brains.

[Longford]

Originally Posted by edgeee

i just hope the new honchos have a little more heart than the last bunch.

In comparison to his predecessors from the 4 decades prior which I observed, I believe President Calderon did an excellent job as President, given the obstacles he has been confronted with ... and that he demonstrated beyond question his heart was certainly big, and in the right place.

[stilltraveling]

Originally Posted by Longford

In comparison to his predecessors from the 4 decades prior which I observed, I believe President Calderon did an excellent job as President, given the obstacles he has been confronted with ... and that he demonstrated beyond question his heart was certainly big, and in the right place.

But his brain wasn't. Fox was presented with the same strategy when he came into office. After thorough analysis, he concluded that the strategy wouldn't work because the military has neither the training nor the culture to engage in law enforcement. His conclusion was that it would only result in an increase in violence. He was right.

The problem with Calderon is that he couldn't admit that it wasn't working and change strategy. When Calderon came to office, the homicide rate in Mexico was the lowest it had been since such records were kept (about 70 years).

It was very clear by 2009, after the homicide rate had increased by a factor of 6, that the strategy was creating more death and destruction than it was preventing. His response was to begin the now-famous perp-walks where newly-arrested suspects were paraded in front of the TV cameras before they had a trial (or had even seen a lawyer). A very high percentage of those suspects were ultimately freed because they grabbed the wrong guy. To make a public show of force, he sent the military into cities which resulted in a record number of human rights violations and no decrease in violence.

The homicide rate is now more than 10 times what it was when he came to office and shows no sign of easing.

Instead of listening to his expert panels (I sat on one), he chose to try and sell the myth that it was working. He still insists that all we have to do is push harder and victory is right around the corner. That isn't showing heart, that is showing how heartless a politician can be when he puts his historical legacy above the lives of the people he was sworn to protect.

[conklinwh]

I suspect that a lot of what you say is true but you also need factor in the rise of the Zetas.
They are hit men with no natural power base or chain of supply so really only plan was the violent overflow of existing cartels and a lot more non drug violence.

[Longford]

Originally Posted by stilltraveling

But his brain wasn't. Fox was presented with the same strategy when he came into office. After thorough analysis, he concluded that the strategy wouldn't work because the military has neither the training nor the culture to engage in law enforcement. His conclusion was that it would only result in an increase in violence. He was right.

The problem with Calderon is that he couldn't admit that it wasn't working and change strategy. When Calderon came to office, the homicide rate in Mexico was the lowest it had been since such records were kept (about 70 years).

It was very clear by 2009, after the homicide rate had increased by a factor of 6, that the strategy was creating more death and destruction than it was preventing. His response was to begin the now-famous perp-walks where newly-arrested suspects were paraded in front of the TV cameras before they had a trial (or had even seen a lawyer). A very high percentage of those suspects were ultimately freed because they grabbed the wrong guy. To make a public show of force, he sent the military into cities which resulted in a record number of human rights violations and no decrease in violence.

The homicide rate is now more than 10 times what it was when he came to office and shows no sign of easing.

Instead of listening to his expert panels (I sat on one), he chose to try and sell the myth that it was working. He still insists that all we have to do is push harder and victory is right around the corner. That isn't showing heart, that is showing how heartless a politician can be when he puts his historical legacy above the lives of the people he was sworn to protect.

Comparing the homicide rates in Mexico is like comparing apples to oranges. For so very long the nation hasn't had a data base considered worthy of quoting, and crimes are not classified uniformly.

I can't find the link to it now, but I read the transcript of presentations of the leaders of PAN and PRI at an annual bankers convention in Acapulco a couple of years ago. Both agreed that more people had been killed as a result of the "drug war" during the administration of Fox and the last two years of Zedillo. There was a lot of cover-up, I'm suspecting. But, certainly, things became more violent when Calderon didn't deal with the cartel's and allow them sovergnty over large portions of the country.

I don't know of what other strategy Calderon could have followed. And I haven't seen anything coming out of Mexico that was better than he tried. Let's remember that he had to maneuver a hostile Congress which thwarted much of what he'd intended to do. And considering the high incidence of corruption in Mexican society, in particular the judiciary, police and military .... he was fighting an up-hill battle.

Overall, Calderon continues to enjoy wide public support for his casrtel-fighting strategies. And then there is the maybe 1/3 of the nation (or those polled) who support armed forces of the USA on the ground in Mexico to help fight the cartels. I find that level of support astounding.

Yes, Calderon has heart. Far more than the addicts in the USA and Mexico who are buying/using/profiting from the dead bodies in Mexico. I'd take him for another 6 years over the likes of AMLO and Pena Nieto.

[stilltraveling]

Originally Posted by conklinwh

I suspect that a lot of what you say is true but you also need factor in the rise of the Zetas.
They are hit men with no natural power base or chain of supply so really only plan was the violent overflow of existing cartels and a lot more non drug violence.

Calderon decapitated the long-established cartels and made the ground ripe for the Zetas to move in. In fact, his operations were so consistently benefiting the Zetas that people started to question whether or not he was working for them. I don't think he was, they just used his foolish plan to their advantage.

[conklinwh]

That I don't buy! The Zetas split from the Gulf cartel before any noticeable success with bigwigs and there main other target is the Sinaola cartel that has suffered little. I think it is an instance of a new group moving in and having to fight to find a position.
BTW, not a whole lot different than the Aztecs.

[stilltraveling]

Originally Posted by Longford

Comparing the homicide rates in Mexico is like comparing apples to oranges. For so very long the nation hasn't had a data base considered worthy of quoting, and crimes are not classified uniformly.

The nation has had a very reliable database for 70 years. I spend years working with that data. It's as good as it is anywhere else. There's no hiding the fact that the homicide rate increased exponentially in the last 5 1/2 years.

I can't find the link to it now, but I read the transcript of presentations of the leaders of PAN and PRI at an annual bankers convention in Acapulco a couple of years ago. Both agreed that more people had been killed as a result of the "drug war" during the administration of Fox and the last two years of Zedillo. There was a lot of cover-up, I'm suspecting.

A lot of conjecture from people who don't actually work in the field. Bankers don't make public health policy, nor do they have the training or the experience to know what they're talking about. Politicians are only slightly more educated on the subject, but they have experts to rely on when making their decisions. The experts were ignored throughout this administration.

I don't know of what other strategy Calderon could have followed. And I haven't seen anything coming out of Mexico that was better than he tried. Let's remember that he had to maneuver a hostile Congress which thwarted much of what he'd intended to do. And considering the high incidence of corruption in Mexican society, in particular the judiciary, police and military .... he was fighting an up-hill battle.

The corruption is higher now than it has ever been. Calderon smacked a puddle of mercury and it went in all directions, but it didn't hurt the mercury. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone over 35 running a cartel anymore. The old guys that kept the business in check for decades are all gone. It was exactly what Fox predicted, which is why he didn't take this approach. Notice the difference in homicide rates from one administration to the other. THAT was the better approach.

Overall, Calderon continues to enjoy wide public support for his casrtel-fighting strategies.

Not sure what you're basing that on. All the data I've seen (and the election) show just the opposite. The only broad support he still enjoys are from those who identify themselves as deeply religious, not even a plurality of modern Mexico. In fact, the rate is almost the same as those who voted for Josefina.

And then there is the maybe 1/3 of the nation (or those polled) who support armed forces of the USA on the ground in Mexico to help fight the cartels. I find that level of support astounding.

If the recent election has taught you anything, it's that you can't trust polls or the media in this country.

Yes, Calderon has heart. Far more than the addicts in the USA and Mexico who are buying/using/profiting from the dead bodies in Mexico. I'd take him for another 6 years over the likes of AMLO and Pena Nieto.

Again, you don't work in the field. I've seen far more dead in this last 6 years than I care to see again. The homicide rate was higher than it was in Baghdad at the height of the US occupation. It was a foolish strategy that was poorly executed and has resulted in more harm than good. You might call that heart, but you have the luxury of not being responsible for public health policy in this country. Those of use who are are deeply ashamed of what just happened.

The drugs aren't the problem. Cocaine kills less than 800 Mexicans annually. Marijuana hasn't killed anyone in the history of medical science. Prohibition killed 50,000 Mexicans in the past 5 years, 20,000 last year alone (not counting the mass graves that are yet to be discovered, if they ever are). This year will have a similar toll. It doesn't take heart to sit comfortably behind an army of bodyguards while your people are being massacred. That's just pigheadedness. Even worse, it's bad government policy.

Drug addiction is a public health problem. It will never be solved with military tactics. The data is irrefutable.