UK facing difficulties reducing migration in 2011, it is claimed

Immigration cap to UK to face trouble

The UK government plans to drastically reduce immigration in 2011 is in disarray with a think tank warning it will fail and the courts claiming the current temporary cap is illegal.

A permanent cap of immigrants from non European Union countries aimed at reducing immigration from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands is due to take effect from April but workers from EU countries will counter the reduction, thus making any decrease negligible, it is claimed.

According to the Institute for Public Policy Research restrictions on some eastern European workers end next year so net migration is unlikely to fall much below 200,000 in 2011 – roughly the annual level it has been at for much of the last decade.

‘If the UK economy continues to perform more strongly relative to Eurozone countries such as Spain, Portugal and Greece, we might expect increased net inflows from the EU, which is not covered by the annual cap being introduced in April 2011,’ a report from the institute says.

An increased number of migrants from Ireland where the economy is in severe trouble are also likely. It’s been predicted that 120,000 Irish nationals could leave the republic in 2010 and 2011. Also, numbers coming from Lithuania and Latvia increased from 25,000 a year to 40,000 a year.

The report also points out that emigration by UK citizens has dropped substantially in recent years. Net emigration was just over 30,000 in the year to March 2010, compared with 130,000 in the year to March 2008. It says there is no obvious reason why this trend should change sharply in 2011.

Foreign student numbers have been growing dramatically in recent years, more than doubling between 2001 and 2008. The number of study related visas (including dependants) in 2010 is likely to top 300,000. The government plans to curb foreign student numbers substantially, but the restrictions are not likely to take full effect in 2011.

‘Ministers must manage down public expectations that immigration will be reduced rapidly because ippr analysis suggests this is unlikely to happen in 2011 on current trends. The cap on skilled migration from outside the EU, which the government has already put in place, could hurt the economic recovery. Other hasty measures to reduce numbers artificially would be even more damaging,’ said Nick Pearce, ippr director.

‘Bringing down the level of immigration, which has been high in recent years, is a legitimate policy goal. But this should only be done by making long term and sustainable reforms to the structure of our economy and labour market,’ he added.

Meanwhile High Court judges have ruled that home office minister, Theresa May, has sidestepped parliamentary scrutiny in her attempt to impose the temporary cap on skilled non-European migrants. The judges’ decision is in relation to the current cap of 24,100 for the period between June 2010 and April 2011.

This new cap currently affects skilled emigrants arriving on visas classed as Tier 1, in which emigrants are free to look around for jobs. It also limits Tier 2 visas in which the emigrants have specific job offers.

The judges said that the secretary of state made no secret of her intentions. There can be no doubt that she was attempting to sidestep provisions for Parliamentary scrutiny set up under provisions of the 1971 Emigration Act. Her attempts, for that reason alone, were unlawful.

Immigration minister, Damian Green, said he was disappointed with the ruling and said the government will do everything it can to continue to prevent a rush of applications before the permanent cap gets put in place.

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Tagged as: cap on entry, expat, immigrants, immigration, uk